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Staff Picks: Week 5 score predictions for Saints at Washington
Week 5 is in full swing and the New Orleans Saints are heading out for a rare road game with the Washington Football Team — a trip they’ve made just three times in the Sean Payton era. And Payton has come away with only one victory on the road in this series (in overtime, to boot), back in 2009’s Super Bowl-winning season. So this is a good chance for him to add another footnote to his resume.
What’s your score prediction? Here are our staff picks:
Saints wearing their winningest uniform combo for Week 5 at Washington:
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White jerseys, white pants on Sunday ⚜️#Saints | @EAMaddenNFL pic.twitter.com/wpSz5hQBJs
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 8, 2021
With a 2-2 record staring them in the face and one very beatable opponent standing in their way before the bye week, the New Orleans Saints aren’t leaving anything to chance. They’ve picked their winningest uniform combination for Week 5’s game with the Washington Football Team.
Okay, so, it doesn’t matter what the team is wearing. They’re going to win or lose regardless. But this week’s uniform combo has rapidly won over its fans, and more than a few will be eager to see the Saints compete in their white away jerseys and matching white pants. And as for the rest of us, well; it’s not the same thing as their “Color Rush” alternates but it’s awful close.
Here’s the winning percentage New Orleans has achieved in each uniform combo they have used in the Sean Payton era (dating back to 2006):
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Seahawks’ Russell Wilson to miss time with injury, Geno Smith to start vs. Saints in Week 7:
The New Orleans Saints might be getting a big break coming out of their bye week. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported Friday that Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson could miss the next six to eight weeks recovering from a ruptured middle-finger tendon that will likely require surgery. That puts his backup Geno Smith up against the Saints when they visit Seattle for a Monday night game after their Week 6 bye.
Of course right now the Saints are dialed in on their Week 5 matchup with the Washington Football Team. But we can’t help but keep one eye on the future; as many as four starters on offense could return from injuries for that Seahawks game including wide receivers Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith, left tackle Terron Armstead, and center Erik McCay.
Place kicker Wil Lutz, linebacker Kwon Alexander, and defensive end Marcus Davenport are also eligible (as are a couple of backups in cornerback Ken Crawley, tight end Nick Vannett, and linebacker Chase Hansen).
So New Orleans is poised to go on a tear if they play their cards right. They’ll come out of their bye well rested and hopefully healthy, with a possible statement game in front of a national audience. Here’s how the next leg of their schedule lines up after Week 7’s game with the Smith-led, 2-3 Seahawks:
But, again: let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Fascinating as the future is shaping up to be (and I’d be remiss to mention Wilson prompted a lot of trade chatter early this offseason, with New Orleans the only team among his preferred destinations to not have a long-term answer at quarterback, while Seattle doesn’t own their first round pick in 2022) let’s train all our attention on Washington, as Sean Payton and the Saints very likely are doing.
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Saints vs. Washington preview: 7 things to know about Week 5
Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints will look to get a win against Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team in Week 5. Here’s what you need to know about the game:
2 Saints players land on PFF’s first-quarter All-Pro team
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Which New Orleans Saints players deserve All-Pro honors after the first four games? With a frustrating 2-2 record, there are probably a lot of fans who aren’t eager to nominate anyone.
But two Saints players placed on the first-quarter All-Pro first team from Pro Football Focus, with a few others receiving recognition on the second team. And some were snubbed despite the team’s mediocre record. Here’s what PFF’s Sam Monson said of the selections, and some thoughts on those left out in the cold:
First look at full-strength Saints offense should be right around the corner
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The New Orleans Saints offense is in stasis. They’re not necessarily playing scared, but they’re very much keeping a foot off the gas pedal while working with so many absences. It’s no surprise that almost half their plays (78 rushing attempts and 14 targets, accounting for 92 of their 220 plays) have gone to Alvin Kamara, force-feeding their best player opportunities to keep the offense on schedule. So when will this offense start to look like itself?
Hopefully that resolution is right around the corner. New Orleans’ top two receivers aren’t available. While Tre’Quan Smith says he’ll return from injured reserve after the Saints’ bye week, there’s less certainty with Michael Thomas, who is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list until that Week 6 bye. The hope is that he’ll be ready to practice ahead of Week 7’s game with the Seattle Seahawks, but it’s the kind of thing we have to see to believe given the way his last year has gone.
And the offensive line has been banged up too. The strength of the team, that unit has been without all-star left tackle Terron Armstead and starting center Erik McCoy, putting less-capable backups into prominent spots. Neither of them have gone on injured reserve, but they were both non-participants in Wednesday’s practice session. Barring a change on Thursday, we probably won’t see them until after the bye week either.
So that suggests the Saints are one more game (and then a week of rest) away from fielding an offense that looks like one we’re used to, with Thomas drawing a ton of targets and Smith stretching the field with McCoy and Armstead keeping pass protection sharp. And with a stunningly efficient Jameis Winston under center, maybe those upgrades are enough to get New Orleans back among league leaders on offense. We’ve just got to wait a little longer and hope they can beat the Washington Football Team without their best players this weekend.
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Studs and Duds from New Orleans Saints’ loss to New York Giants
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The New Orleans Saints may have fallen short to the New York Giants last week, but there’s surprisingly a lot to like in their performance. Individuals rose to the occasion to give them an 11-point lead late in the game; if Sean Payton had done a better coaching job and made more aggressive decisions, they probably hold onto it for a win.
But that wasn’t the case. The Saints’ loss was helped by poor outings from some players put into high-leverage situations, which they’d gotten away with up until this point. Some changes may be necessary. Let’s get into this week’s studs and duds:
The Saints haven’t even worked out a free agent kicker in a month and a half. They only have themselves to blame for field goal miscues:
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Payton: “At some point we need to be able to kick a field goal.”
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) October 3, 2021
The New Orleans Saints a problem kicking field goals. Sean Payton knows it. Fans know it. Aldrick Rosas himself has to be hyper-aware of it. The veteran signed to hold the post until Wil Lutz can return from core muscle surgery hit a rough patch last week with two missed field goals, followed by another miss on Sunday against the Giants.
That’s three unsuccessful field goal tries in two weeks, from ranges of 36, 52, and 58 yards. Kicking from 50-plus is hardly a sure thing but he’s got to go out there and do his job like everyone else. Instead he’s gotten worse as his time in New Orleans has drawn on. The Saints passed on a
Payton admitted as much after the Giants loss, but he shouldn’t be pointing fingers anywhere but at himself. We’ve known for a week that Rosas was a liability. Warning signs have persisted for longer than that — it’s no accident that Payton only chose to attempt a single field goal through the first two games, not trusting Rosas to execute what’s asked of him. He also missed an easy extra-point attempt in his lone preseason game with the Saints and looked shaky on a 52-yarder.
The Saints have had opportunities to upgrade, but instead they’ve been complacent. They haven’t so much as brought a free agent in for a workout since the Aug. 19 tryouts that introduced them to Rosas (along with rookies Alex Kessman and Dominik Eberle). There was a lot of speculation among fans that the Saints could acquire rookie Jake Verity (like Lutz, another Justin Tucker understudy with the Baltimore Ravens) and they had a chance when he was waived during final roster cuts, but they still sat on their hands.
Maybe Verity or someone else makes the field goal Rosas missed, or at least gives Payton enough confidence to try other kicks instead of settling for punts or gambling on fourth down conversions. Maybe not. But with two losses in their first four games, the Saints can’t be happy with the hole they’ve dug for themselves.
So what can they do about it? Lutz is eligible to return whenever the team doctors give him the green light, having rested on injured reserve for the NFL-required three week minimum. Hopefully he’s all healed up and ready to kick against the Washington Football Team next Sunday, though it shouldn’t shock us if the Saints remain conservative in his recovery and keep him on ice through the bye week. It’s just another storyline to monitor in what’s shaping up to be a very busy week.
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What will it take for Sean Payton to trust Jameis Winston?
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I’ve already written about how Sean Payton may have broken Jameis Winston in order to fix his worst tendencies, but Winston showed some of those positive qualities I’d been searching for in Sunday’s game with the New York Giants. Then Payton effectively took Winston out of the game, showing a baffling lack of trust in his quarterback.
The fourth quarter began with New Orleans possessing the football at New York’s 18-yard line. They had three more possessions in the final period, their control of the pace of play spanning 7 minutes and 35 seconds of game clock, and Winston totaled just four pass attempts. Payton took the game out of his hands to try and run out the clock behind Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara, a strategy that worked last week. He played not to lose instead of choosing to play to win.
What’s different is he had a strong enough lead against a poor enough offense to trust that strategy in New England, against an overwhelmed rookie with a toothless receiving corps. This time around Payton went into the fourth quarter having already seen Daniel Jones carve up his secondary with big plays to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and John Ross. He watched Saquon Barkley score from 54 yards out in-between his final possessions to cut New Orleans’ lead to just three points and stubbornly refused to change his approach. With the stakes rising higher, Payton showed the world how little faith he has in Winston.
And it’s not Winston’s fault. He’s done what he’s been told. Sure, he could have executed some plays better but he’s thrown eight touchdowns against just two interceptions (without Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith, Erik McCoy, and Terron Armstead playing a single game together). Through those four games he’s completed 55 of his 86 pass attempts (63.9%) for 613 passing yards, taking 7 sacks but not fumbling once.
That projects over a 17-game season as a 233-of-366 line for 2,605 yards and 34 touchdowns against 9 interceptions and 30 sacks. That’s not good enough for Payton for to give him the green light to win a game when it really counts? The guy who called “Ambush” in Super Bowl XLIV would rather play it safe to a fault?
Winston hasn’t chaffed against getting subbed out for Hill — who, we’ve got to recognize, threw the Saints’ only interception today on an ill-advised shot play to the 5-foot-6 Deonte Harris covered by the 6-foot-1 James Bradberry. And, yeah, it matters that Winston is working with a weaker supporting cast on offense than he ever dealt with in Tampa Bay.
Maybe Payton is holding last week’s frightful throwaway-turned-touchdown against Winston even now. Maybe he isn’t sold on the progress Winston has made since his turnover-prone Buccaneers days. Maybe Winston needs to start bringing donuts to morning film meetings to try and win back his coach’s favor. Crossing that divide, whatever its cause, is up to Payton. He’s the one cooling on his handpicked passer. If all he wants his quarterback to do is hit some 8-yard curls and slants and lose snaps to Hill, why not just start Hill anyway?
I just hope they figure it out soon. Right now it doesn’t feel like Payton would trust Winston to walk his dog, much less lead his offense to a last-minute scoring drive. That’s obviously not a sustainable strategy. The good news is that it’s a long season, the Saints are still 2-2, and they’re getting enough impact players back in the weeks ahead to get them back on track. If they don’t steady the ship, look for Payton to do whatever’s necessary in the spring to go find a quarterback he trusts as implicitly as he did Drew Brees (like, I don’t know, disgruntled franchise passers already considering trade demands like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers).
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There aren’t many worse omens in football than losing to the Giants
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Week 4’s loss to the New York Giants has to be tough for the New Orleans Saints to accept. Their defense fell apart at the seams against a Daniel Jones, who went into the game having never thrown for 300-plus yards since Jason Garrett was hired as his play caller; Jones finished the day with 402 passing yards, including a pair of touchdown passes.
Things haven’t gone well for teams who have lost to the Giants lately. New York only won six games last season (twice beating Washington), and of those opponents just one finished the year with a winning record — the 12-4 Seattle Seahawks, who got bounced out of the playoffs in the wild-card round. The other four teams to lose to Big Blue in 2020 finished a combined 21-41-2.
This trend stretches on into 2019, when New York won just four games (again twice against Washington). None of their opponents ended with a winning record and they finished with a cumulative 15-33 record. The Giants have played a lot of bad football in recent years. They went into this game without a win for good reasons. Losing to them yourself says a lot of ugly things about your team and where it’s headed.
Of course there’s time for the Saints to defy this and turn things around. Their plan remains the same: heal up and get a handful of starters back from various reserve lists (wide receivers Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas, defensive linemen David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport, linebacker Kwon Alexander, kicker Wil Lutz) around the bye week, then go on a tear. Maybe it’s a good sign that the Saints have a game with that same sorry Washington team scheduled up next.
It’s a pretty vision. Let’s hope it doesn’t become too clouded with another loss on the books.
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