The Chicago Bears have a tough decision to make with Justin Fields. What do the tape and metrics say about Fields’ ultimate potential?
The Chicago Bears have a serious decision to make this upcoming offseason.
Right now, the Bears have the first overall pick in the 2034 draft by dint of their trade with the Carolina Panthers before the 2023 draft, and the 10th overall pick because of their 7-9 record. No matter what happens in their regular-season finale against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, the Bears will be set up to stack talent onto their roster as they rarely have before.
But what to do with quarterback Justin Fields? If the front office is unconvinced after three seasons that Fields is the guy to lead them to the proverbial next level, they could trade him (likely for less than a first-round pick), and avail themselves of the best possible quarterback in the upcoming draft. Or, they could hold onto Fields, assume they have the game’s most important position covered, and continue to build around him.
There are no easy answers. Right now, among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts this season, Fields ranks 16th in touchdown rate at 4.5%, and his 2.5% interception rate ranks 19th. Fields ranks 30th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt at 5.28, 39th in Success Rate at 38.2%, and his EPA of -66.38 is eighth-worst in the NFL. Fields is a dynamic runner and playmaker, but there’s only so far you can get with that if you don’t have play-to-play consistency as a passer. Only Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have thrown more third-down interceptions this season than Fields’ five, and Fields’ third-down EPA of -23.68 is sixth-worst in the league.
The positive side is what Fields has done in the second half of this season, as the Bears have risen from 27th to 16th in Passing DVOA. He hasn’t been as much of an explosive passer, but he has been more efficient, completing 60.2% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.2.
There have been factors beyond Fields’ control. He was selected with the 11th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of Ohio State, and Matt Nagy was his first head coach. If you want to know what Matt Nagy running your offense looks like, go watch the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs as long as you can stand it. His best receiver by far has been D.J. Moore, who the Bears also got in that trade with the Panthers. His offensive line is starting to improve, and you can start to see clear paths to significant improvement in 2024. If they keep him, and put someone like Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field with Moore, that process could accelerate quickly.
But that’s all contingent on whether the Bears decide to keep Fields, or to move along.
Against the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday in a 37-17 win, Fields completed 20 of 32 passes for 268 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 99.5. And he made throws that were both impressive and maddening.
The maddening throws still tend to come from Fields’ relative inability to read through progressions quickly. On this incompletion with 8:23 left in the third quarter, Fields had receiver Tyler Scott wide open on a stack release crosser against Atlanta’s Cover-3. The Falcons sent a safety blitz with Jessie Bates III, and the Bears picked it up, so that was a clean pocket. And it was one of those “throw it… throw it… throw it…” moments we’ve seen far too often. Fields waited until Scott crossed the field, and he then overthrew Scott. That’s the kind of stuff that will drive you nuts.
But the 32-yard pass to D.J. Moore with 2:15 left in the first quarter on third-and-7 was the kind of play that gives you hope. Moore got open to Fields’ backside on a switch release, cornerback A.J. Terrell followed Moore from the slot, and Fields made a perfect throw, allowing Moore to grab it over his head as if Fields had walked up and handed the ball to him.
Fields’ seven-yard touchdown pass to Moore with 8:52 left in the first quarter was another example of Fields reading through and getting it right.
“Yeah, three by one, or one by three,” Fields said. “They were in what we call triangle coverage where basically the safety and the slot [are] outside leverage, and outside is basically one on one. Yeah, D.J. just really has to beat the safety on that. Just make sure the corner outside attaches to the under route and then, boom, D.J. ran a corner route or had good leverage on it. At that point [Moore] did a good job. [The offensive] line did a great job protecting on that one, and great catch, great route by D.J.”
If the Bears can build on those Fields attributes, and continue to add talent around him, who knows how far Fields can take it?
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys further discuss the decision the Bears have to make. You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar” right here:
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