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The New York Yankees and Houston Astros meet on Opening Day at Minute Maid Park with Thursday’s 1st pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Yankees took 5 of 7 from the Astros last season
New York went 82-80 and finished 4th in the AL East last season. The Yankees open their 2024 campaign with an eye at getting back to October baseball. New York missed the postseason in 2023 for the 1st time since 2016.
The Astros went 90-72 in 2023 and won the AL West. They made it to the AL Championship Series before being ousted by the eventual World Series-champion Texas Rangers.
Yankees at Astros projected starters
LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Cortes (2023: 5-2, 4.97 ERA) makes his 1st MLB start since Aug. 4. He logged a 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 63 1/3 IP last season.
- Only made 1 start after May 30 due to a rotator cuff strain
- Registered an 8.10 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 10 spring training innings
- Owns a career ERA of 3.82 in 104 games (56 starts)
Valdez (2023: 12-11, 3.45 ERA) logged a 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 198 IP last season.
- Has given the Astros 31 starts in each of the last 2 seasons
- Logged a 2.51 1st-half ERA in 2023 and a 4.66 ERA 2nd-half figure
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Yankees at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
PASS: Better relative value can be found on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
The Yanks earned a 3-game sweep at Minute Maid last Sept. 1-3. They go with positive-regression candidate Cortes, who filed sub-3.00 ERA seasons in 2021 and 2022.
Houston had a power outage in spring training, slugging a mere .384.
With the Under being a solid lean, TAKE NEW YORK +1.5 (-160).
Over/Under
These top-level AL foes have not seen these starters much (New York seeing Valdez for the 1st time since June 2022, and Houston seeing Cortes just once last season — for 4 innings), and both southpaws are a tough read.
With the scheduled starters plus fresh bullpens, and likely good pitching all the way around, BACK THE UNDER 8.5(+100).
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