Category: Advanced Stats

There’s no hope for Cowboys offense if they don’t improve in this one area

Dak Prescott is just as responsible for his sacks in 2024 as the Cowboys linemen in front of him, finds @ReidDHanson

One of the Dallas Cowboys’ biggest struggles throughout the 2024 season was pass protection from the offensive tackle positions. Whether it was Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, or even Trey Lance at the helm, Dallas’ signal callers were routinely facing trouble from the edge, and their play in the pocket reflected that.

The Cowboys’ two offensive tackles, Terence Steele and Tyler Guyton, were all-too-often turnstiles as pass protectors. Their inconsistent play on drop backs forced Dallas to alter the playbook in many ways. Shorter drop backs, quicker releases and abbreviated route combinations were apparent on Day 1 of the season. Less time in the pocket meant less time reading the field, less time for progressions, and fewer big plays.

It’s no mystery why Prescott’s Big Time Throws (BTT) per game dropped from 2.4 to 1.75 in 2024. And also explains why virtually all of Prescott’s other passing efficiency numbers dropped significantly across the board as well.

Despite posting his shortest Time to Throw (TTT) since 2020, Prescott saw an increase of pressures per game with a significant portion of that coming from the edge. Prescott played like he was on a clock and that was likely by design. Dallas’ struggles at OT were rather predictable and Mike McCarthy’s gameplans generally reflected that.

McCarthy routinely used running backs and tight ends to assist his two OTs in pass protection, but that unavoidably removed an extra target downfield. With more defenders in coverage than receiving targets running routes, separation was hard to come by and windows were as narrow as they’ve ever been. It added up to a very stressful situation that not only impacted Prescott’s play in 2024 but may trickle into 2025 as well.

Sometimes traumatic situations on the football field can cause long-lasting or even permanent damage. Back in 2019 while playing for the Jets, Sam Darnold famously said, “I’m seeing ghosts” during a particularly traumatic game against the Patriots. Many analysts wondered if Darnold could come back from that.

Like Darnold in 2019, Prescott appeared to be seeing ghosts in 2024. The Cowboys QB was regularly seen bailing from an otherwise stable pocket. His internal clock seemed to be sending him the signal trouble was on the way, even when it wasn’t. On multiple occasions Prescott ran from a safe place and right into trouble. They were uncharacteristic actions from the typically stoic QB, and they made an already bad situation much, much worse.

They say sacks are a QB stat, and for the most part they’re right. Sack rates tend to follow QBs from team to team. Good pass protection or bad pass protection, QBs will adjust. Unfortunately, Prescott adjusted in the wrong way and actually added to his problem by running into sacks in 2024.

Not only was 2024 his highest sack rate in six seasons, but the combined percentage of 2023 and 2024 are the worst since his second and third seasons in the NFL. According to Patton Analytics, Prescott was one of eight QBs who was to blame for over 50 percent of the sacks against him last season.

It’s imperative the Cowboys fix their pass protection deficiencies on the edge before this bleeds into a third season and has permanent effects on Prescott’s pocket presence. When a QB can’t trust his offensive line, he starts to play like it, and that’s what fans saw from Prescott in 2024.

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Buccaneers poised to continue a bad trend for Spencer Rattler

Spencer Rattler has been under pressure more frequently than any other quarterback. The Buccaneers’ 6th-best pressure rate is a mismatch:

Spencer Rattler has been under pressure in nearly half of his dropbacks, and that’s unlikely to change against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The New Orleans Saints will be without Erik McCoy and Lucas Patrick, which has been common in Rattler’s starts.

The young quarterback has dealt with a combination of a banged up offensive line and injuries depleting the receiving corps of options who can win quickly. This leads to quick pressure or Rattler having to hold the ball longer. Both scenarios boost the pressure rate.

This week is a bad matchup for Rattler and the Saints offense. He’s been pressured on 42% of his dropbacks, highest in the NFL, and the Buccaneers have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 36.4% of dropbacks, sixth in the NFL.

Tampa Bay has been particularly effective as of late. Their pressure rate since Week 12 is the best in the league, and they just had their best game against the Carolina Panthers. The 24 pressures was a season high and, most importantly, pressured Bryce Young on 68.6% of his passing attempts.

This is a strength of Tampa Bay going against a weakness of the Saints. This doesn’t bode well for a struggling New Orleans offense.

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Alontae Taylor has been one of the worst tacklers in the NFL

Alontae Taylor has more missed tackles than any cornerback this season, with the highest miss rate of any defender. He must clean it up if he’s going to be someone they can rely on:

You never want to be on the wrong side of this stat. Alontae Taylor has been one of the worst tacklers in the NFL this year, and the New Orleans Saints have felt the impact in both the running and passing game.

The cornerback has a 22 missed tackles, for a missed tackle rate of 20.2%. His 22 missed tackles are the most for any cornerback. His missed tackle rate, however, is higher than any defender with at least 100 tackling attempts.

When you think about a bad run defense, you typically think about the defensive lineman not getting push or linebackers not filling the gap efficiently.

While that’s at play as well, Taylor is a physical player who spent about half of the season in the slot. That put him in the run game more than his snaps at outside corner. Missed tackles on the perimeter can easily lead to a runner getting the edge and gives more of an opportunity for a big play.

In the passing game, that adds more yards after catch. Tackling has been one of the bigger issues for the New Orleans Saints. In Taylor’s case, both are prone to lead to big plays. We all know that’s another issue that has plagued the Saints. He must clean it up if he’s going to be someone they can rely on in a starting role.

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Advanced stats highlight one of the Saints’ biggest defensive faults

Tackling has been one of the biggest issues for the Saints run defense. These advanced stats showcase another reason for the struggles.

The New Orleans Saints struggling run defense has been a constant topic of conversation. There was a point where it appeared to improve. Over the last two weeks, however, the issues have darted back to the forefront.

You can point towards total yardage to hammer the point home, but advanced statistics get to the true root of the issue.

The Saints are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to getting to rushers in the backfield. They have the second lowest contact rate behind the line of scrimmage, just 35.3%.

Demario Davis has more total tackles, but he’ll likely fail to get 10 tackles for loss for the first time since 2014. That stat is a great indication of New Orleans’ failures against the run, but it starts with the front line.

The lack of push from the defensive line allows opposing runners to average 1.5 yards before contact. That’s the third-most in the league. Compound that with tackling struggles, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

Teams are succeeding prior to the contact point and after contact has been initiated. These are two separate issues that can hamper a run defense individually. The Saints have both, and that’s the opposite of a recipe for success.

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Cowboys’ defense suddenly becoming a top five NFL unit

The Cowboys have quietly become a dominant defense over the past four weeks

Over the first 11 weeks of the 2024 season, the Cowboys had the third worst defense in the NFL based on EPA/play. Mike Zimmer’s first year back in Dallas was as rocky as advertised. His complex system, combined with major roster holes and significant injuries were a recipe for disaster, contributing heavily to Dallas’ 3-7 record at the time.

The past four weeks things have changed in Dallas. Injuries have continued to take their toll, but responsibilities have started to click, and gameplay has started to improve. In fact, it’s done so to a pretty drastic degree. Over the past four games the Cowboys defense shockingly ranks fifth in EPA/play. Their -0.121 EPA/dropback ranks No. 2 in the NFL and their 0.014 EPA/rush has jumped from 32nd to 26th overall per rbsdm.com.

The Cowboys’ run defense has been prone to give up explosive plays here and there all season but where they make up ground is in the success rate against. Over the last four weeks they’ve jumped from 28th to ninth. Like the pass defense, the run defense is starting to make stands and it’s resulting in a top five defense.

Obviously playing against Carolina and New York helps with the rankings, but the last four weeks also includes Washington and Cincinnati, offenses that rank third and sixth respectively. Zimmer’s unit is finally starting to play good ball and they’re doing it with players like DeMarvion Overshown, Trevon Diggs and DeMarcus Lawrence missing significant, if not all, snaps.

The narrative has changed considerably on defense and unlike the Cowboys running game, it can’t be pinned on the opposition. They’re simply playing better.

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Did the Cowboys O-line improve or are they just facing poorer defenses?

The Cowboys have seen much better performance from their O-line as of late but how much is their own doing?

After weeks of struggles, the Cowboys offensive line seems to finally be putting things together. The beaten and bruised, mismatched and mangled unit appears to be playing their best ball of the season and it’s no coincidence it’s resulted a fair degree of team success along the way.

Through weeks 1-11, the Dallas rushing attack ranked in 17th success rate (39 percent) and 25th in EPA/play (-0.136). In the four weeks that followed they have been fourth in success rate (46.3 percent) and 13th in EPA/play (-0.069). It marks a significant improvement and explains why the Cowboys have gone 3-1 behind a quarterback who ranks just 25th in EPA/dropback + CPOE composite score (measures impact and accuracy).

The question at hand is has the Cowboys offensive line finally worked things out with their run blocking or is this just a result of playing poorer competition?

Over the past four weeks the Cowboys have played the Commanders, Giants, Bengals and Panthers with the combined record of 20-36, likely explaining Dallas’ 3-1 record during that stretch. The run defense rankings of these teams were similarly poor, ranking 25th, 24th, 30th, and 31st respectively in EPA/rush and 21st, 28th, 30th and 32nd respectively in rushing success rate against.

It’s also worth considering the number of adjustments the Cowboys have made to their line throughout the season. Tyler Guyton has been in and out of the lineup. Before landing on IR, Asim Richards and Zack Martin were in and out as well. Brock Hoffman has split time between guard and center. T.J. Bass has bounced from left guard to right guard and Chuma Edoga has made some spot starts along the way.

Overall, there have been 11 different combinations of linemen in Dallas. Of the five that started on Sunday, only two were starters in Week 1 and there’s a good chance only one, Tyler Smith at LG, will be at his same starting position in 2025*. So, it isn’t like the Cowboys suddenly found the perfect combination.

*Note: this assumes the possibility Martin moves on, Terence Steele is cut, Cooper Beebe starts at center, Guyton starts at LT and Hoffman replaces Martin at RG in 2025.

For as much fun as it’s been seeing the Cowboys thrive running the ball these last four weeks, it’s no coincidence it has lined up perfectly with the decline in quality of opponents faced. The Cowboys offensive line and Rico Dowdle still deserve credit, but the credit comes with an asterisk at this point.

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This is currently the Cowboys offense’s best chance without Dak Prescott

The Cowboys need Cooper Rush to play within himself and that means conservative. @ReidDHanson looks at the evidence.

Cooper Rush has played in eight games in 2024, starting four while logging a total of 320 snaps. In that time, he’s passed the ball 185 times, completing 112, for a total of 1,008 passing yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. His 48.0 grade at Pro Football Focus ranks him last in the NFL by a rather significant margin and his -0.027 EPA+CPOE composite score backs up such a claim (also last in the NFL).

It’s safe to say at this point the Cowboys know what they have in Rush. Despite banging out two consecutive wins, he’s not a quarterback that elevates a team. And despite calls to open up the offense and take more shots downfield, Mike McCarthy appears to be doing the smart thing with his replacement QB by taking a conservative approach.

The Cowboys opponent in Week 14 begs such a conservative attack. The zone-happy Bengals defense ranks 28th in EPA/dropback, 29th in rush EPA allowed and 30th in total EPA allowed. They are vulnerable to both the run and the pass and as long as Dallas plays within themselves, they should be able to find success against the Cincinnati defense.

In situations such as this it will be tempting for the Cowboys to take shots down the field. That’s not only unnecessary, but it asks Rush to succeed in an area of personal weakness. Based on FTN Data shown by Doug Analytics, Rush has thrown catchable deep balls on less than 30 percent of his attempts this season. He’s also bottom three in attempts and catchability percentage.

PFF tracking shows Rush has attempted 16 passes of 20 or more yards and completed just four of them for a 25 percent completion rate. One of those passes qualified as a big-time throw and one pass qualified as a turnover worthy throw. It’s arguably the biggest inefficiency in his game, making the case for McCarthy to avoid deep passes with Rush at the helm.

Even in the 10–19-yard range Rush has struggled in 2024. His completion percentage sits at just 40 percent and this intermediate range grades as his poorest on the field with him throwing three times as many turnover worthy throws than big time throws.

For as much as the Cowboys running game and defense have struggled in 2024, they are areas Dallas simply has to lean on in order to win games. Combined with a dink and dunk passing attack that plays inside the numbers, the Cowboys are best positioned to win games behind Rush at QB.

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Blocking improving but Cowboys RBs must take things to another level

The Cowboys offensive line is doing their part it’s now up the RB group to push the running game over the top, finds @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys are starting to see some return on their investment. Over the offseason they invested heavily in their offensive line, dedicating their first-round and a third-round pick to the unit. After some significant growing pains melding the new pieces into the machine, the unit is starting to show some signs of life in the run game.

Even with the constant shuffling of personnel along the line, Dallas ranks eighth in run block win rate. While Zack Martin is the only individual high performer of the group, the unit as a whole has been producing solid results.

In a single point failure area like run blocking, team success is paramount. It only takes one error for the entire play to be blown up. A study conducted by Pro Football Focus concluded a running play in which all blockers received positive grades produces a 60.2 percent success rate while a block with one or more negative grades offers just a 25.7 percent success rate. It carries over in EPA as well, with a positively graded blocking effort producing a +0.27 EPA compared to -0.27 EPA for a run block with one or more negative scores.

Shockingly, the Cowboys are currently in the NFL’s top tier in perfect run block rates in 2024. Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle have both been given solid opportunities for positive gains even if the results of the run haven’t shown it. While running games are largely a byproduct of the blocking, at some point it falls on the running back himself to really push it over the goal line (so to speak).

Explosive plays in particular are an area in which the Cowboys RBs are struggling. Creating holes and delivering positive gains often falls on the offensive line, but it’s the RB himself who’s largely responsible for making players miss at the second level.

Per Sumer Sports, Dowdle’s explosive run rate is 6.3 percent while Elliott’s is just 1.7 percent. For reference, Saquon Barkley is at 11.7 percent and Derrick Henry is at 11.8 percent. It’s a significant difference but Cowboys fans can take solace in the fact the difference between Dowdle and Elliott is far greater than the distance between Barkey/Henry and Dowdle.

Based on a side-by-side statistical comparison it’s clear the Cowboys made the right move giving Dowdle the top spot and pushing Elliott into a supporting role. Dowdle hasn’t just shown he’s the best of the bunch in Dallas but that he’s a legit NFL starter. When Dowdle is getting the ball, the Cowboys are producing at a top 10 success rate (filtered for those with 70+ carries).

Nontraditional ball carriers in Dallas are also producing at high clip. Hunter Luepke (66.7%), KaVontae Turpin (40.0%) and CeeDee Lamb (38.5) are posting decent success rates behind this Cowboys offensive line as well.

The Cowboys haven’t fixed their issues with run blocking, but they are clearly moving in the right direction and better than what some want to credit them for. What this offense needs now is some extra juice from the ball carriers themselves and some more assistance from downfield blockers like receivers and tight ends.

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This Cowboy may be the worst to play his position in the entire NFL in 2024

Things have gone from bad to bottom-of-the-barrel worse at the QB position for the Cowboys in 2024. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Things have not been going well for the Dallas Cowboys in 2024. The calendar year started with a chilly, Week 18 road win to clinch the NFC East title in Landover, MD. Nothing good has happened since. The team returned home to be shockingly blown out the water by Green Bay in the wild-card round. The offseason saw free agency malaise, and a failure to bring back their own key guys and no movement for their star players on expiring deals.

When they finally put ink to paper there, injuries began to pile up and a lame-duck coaching staff proved incapable of inspiring the troops. Suffice to say, the Cowboys have earned their 3-7 record. Among the issues for Dallas was runner-up MVP Dak Prescott’s down season, made worse by his season-ending hamstring injury.

Prescott was in the bottom third of NFL quarterback performance this season, but what’s happened since he left has shone a light to how he was keeping things together with duct tape, paper clips and McGyver’s ingenuity.

For his replacement, veteran QB Cooper Rush, is playing like the worst quarterback the NFL has seen in 2024.

Quarterback Adjusted EPA through Week 11

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— Ben Baldwin (@rbsdm.com) November 20, 2024 at 9:05 AM

EPA, or Expected Points Added, measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.

EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.

Adjusted EPA factors in the quality of opponent.

Based on his play in the last two-plus games, Rush is the NFL’s worst quarterback in 2024. It’s almost like things couldn’t possibly be made worse by putting Trey Lance in the games.

Rico Dowdle value now clear after Cowboys abandon RBBC approach

The Cowboys committee approach at RB has shown them what value Dowdle really brings. | From @ReidDHanson

For as maddening as it’s been stealing carries from Rico Dowdle in 2024, the side-by-side comparison of Ezekiel Elliott and Dowdle has given the Cowboys a nice picture of what each player adds to the running game.

Running backs are a difficult position to evaluate in the NFL. Average yards per carry, cumulative totals and yards after contact have been common ways to grade RB efficiency in the past but they can be dated and often misleading in nature. Expected points added (EPA) has properly valuated the impact of each run better than yards/carry could ever dream of, but much like the others it has a hard time differentiating between RB impact and offensive line ability.

As advanced stats pick up steam in mainstream sports analysis, fans have searched tirelessly to find something that shows the value of a running back beyond what is directly given to him by his offensive line. Many have recently latched onto success rate as great barometer of RB skill, but even that speaks to the team’s execution of the play and says nothing about the quality of the runner himself.

That’s where Elliott and the Cowboys early use of RB-by-committee comes into play.

Under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have been resistant to plug specific runners into specific roles. He will hand off drives and call running plays regardless of whether it’s Elliott or Dowdle in the backfield. To the unintended benefit of this analysis, he matches play calls and circumstances as evenly as can be hoped for. From this we compare yards/carry, yards after contact, elusive rating (PFF signature stat measuring value added by RB) and success rate between the two backs. Predictably, all factors point to Dowdle as the superior RB.

Running behind the same Cowboys offensive line, Dowdle is averaging 4.5 yards/carry, compared to Elliott who just averages 3.2. Dowdle produces an EPA average of 0.04 while Elliott produces -0.27. Dowdle scores a 50.7 elusive rating compared to Elliott who averages a team low 17.2. Dowdle averages 2.41 yards after contact while Elliott averages 2.25.

Dowdle is tackled for loss at a lower rate, he gains first downs at a higher rate, and his explosive run rate is roughly five times that of Elliott. In matters of success rate (SR) Dowdle sits at 48.2 percent while Elliott is light years behind at 31.5 percent. Again, this is all behind the same offensive line with average number of defenders in the box greater for Dowdle than Elliott.

It’s important to point out SR differs from site to site with Pro Football Reference following a generic 40/60/100 format while Sumer Sports bases theirs on actual EPA on the given play (Sumer Sports for the win). But in either method of calculating SR, Dowdle has proven to be one of the best RBs in the NFL, all behind this Cowboys offensive line.

A successful running game typically comes from a well-executed running scheme. Offensive lines have proven over the years they are often more instrumental in ground game success than the man running the ball. Such a sentiment has caused many to declare “running backs don’t matter” since many backups produce at or near the same level of output as the man they replace.

In Dallas that is clearly not the situation. Running backs matter in a very big way because virtually every metric points to Dowdle as the superior runner. The Cowboys running game goes from bottom tier when Elliott has been carrying the ball to top tier when Dowdle is carrying the ball.

For as frustrating as the committee approach has been in 2024 it’s given the team a good look at what Dowdle really adds to the formula. It hasn’t just made a case for Dowdle to be the top dog in 2024 but it’s a making a good argument to re-sign the 26-year-old RB for next year and beyond.

This past week Dowdle has been declared the RB1 for the Cowboys going forward. That’s a wide move because based on the comparison between Dallas’ top two rushers, RBs really do matter sometimes.

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