Category: Advanced Stats

All NFL QBs, including Dak Prescott, ranked by Total QBR going into Week 18

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and as the season winds down, the best QBs are staking their claim to guide their club’s to the playoffs. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 32 touchdown passes going into the final game of the season. Despite a large percentage of media using his 2022 performance in bad-faith arguments, he’s proven himself as one of the game’s best quarterbacks this season and that last year’s interception total was an aberration.

Prescott’s passer rating (104.2) ranks second in the league, as does his Total QBR rating on ESPN (70.5).

Here is part of ESPN’s explanation for its Total QBR rating, courtesy of Sharon Katz and Brian Burke:

ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

So, with that context in mind, here’s a look at the QBR ratings for all 32 NFL teams, some with multiple entries, going into Week 18 of the 2023 season.

Is the Cowboys passing game really dead in the water without CeeDee Lamb?

The Cowboys fell under criticism for staying from CeeDee Lamb on Sunday but is the passing game really hapless without him? | From @ReidDHanson

One of the top headlines to immerge from the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss in Miami is how CeeDee Lamb disappeared from the gameplan for literally half of the game. With zero targets in the second and third quarters, Lamb was absent for an entire half. It’s no coincidence the Cowboys struggled during those periods of time.

It seems an odd thing to do to a player who logged 93 yards alone in the first quarter, but according to coach Mike McCarthy it was something unplanned that simply followed the natural “ebb and flow of the game.”

It’s a fair answer considering a live NFL game is a series of actions and reactions, and often times the best read isn’t to the best player. The circumstances of the drives also matter.

In quarters one and four, the Cowboys had 49 plays on offense. In quarters two and three they had only 31 plays on offense. Was Lambs absence a byproduct of limited plays or are the limited plays a byproduct of not using Lamb? Can we say, both?

But is the Cowboys offense really dead in the water when it’s not funneling through No. 88? Is it really Lamb or bust in Dallas like many have suggested this week?

Looking at the numbers from last week the Cowboys had a number of productive players in the passing game. Volume wise, no one approaches Lamb’s 9.5 expected points added on the day. But on a per play basis, many players met, or even exceeded, Lamb’s 0.95 EPA/play.

WR2 Brandin Cooks averaged 1.77 EPA/play. Every ball he caught successfully increased the Cowboys scoring probabilities (measured in success rate) making him the most efficient target on the field. Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin averaged 1.73 EPA/play and 1.66 EPA/play, respectively. They’re not much more than role players, but they’re highly effective role players at least. Even Jake Ferguson, who saw a higher volume than the others, managed a positive EPA/play of 0.30.

While Michael Gallup, Peyton Hendershot, Rico Dowdle, Tony Pollard, and Luke Schoonmaker all offered negative returns on the day, the success of the others shows the Cowboys have plenty of weapons on offense other than Lamb.

Does this excuse Lambs lack of targets through half the game?

Certainly not. But it shows the Cowboys No. 2 ranked passing attack this isn’t completely hapless without him. The Cowboys’ passing attack is really, really good and a big reason why is because of Lamb. But he’s not the only reason.

[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3]

Cowboys adaptability on defense will be put to the test against Dolphins

If the Cowboys play their usual brand of coverage in Week 16, they’ll be playing into the Dolphins’ strengths, says @ReidDHanson.

To adapt or not adapt, that is the question. This Shakespearean-like conundrum torments all NFL coaches but in Week 16 of the NFL season, it’s likely especially applicable to the Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

On one hand, Quinn has the league’s No. 5 defense, by EPA standards. With depth in the secondary and strength in man coverage, he has a defense built to play nickel personnel, heavy man and single high safety coverage. Based on their ranking, it’s served him well.

On the other hand, Quinn is staring down an elite offense in Miami. It’s an offense that’s built to destroy man coverage, spread out defenses, and catch would-be tacklers out of position. It’s an offense that can win a number of ways which could mean following their season-long trends or following Buffalo’s blueprint that recently embarrassed the Cowboys.

 

 

The Cowboys adaptability on defense will be put to the test against Dolphins

If the Cowboys play their usual brand of coverage in Week 16, they’ll be playing into the Dolphins’ strengths

To adapt or not adapt, that is the question. This Shakespearean-like conundrum torments all NFL coaches, but in Week 16 of the NFL season, it’s likely especially applicable to the Cowboys defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.

On one hand, Quinn has the league’s No. 5 defense (by EPA standards). With depth in the secondary and strength in man coverage, he has a defense built to play nickel personnel, heavy man and single high safety coverage. Based on their ranking, it has served him well.

On the other hand, Quinn is staring down an elite offense in Miami. It’s an offense that’s built to destroy man coverage, spread out defenses, and catch would-be tacklers out of position. It’s an offense that can win a number of ways, which could mean following their season-long trends or following Buffalo’s blueprint that recently embarrassed the Cowboys.

Quinn has a decision to make: Does he A) lean into his team’s strengths and do the same thing he’s done all season with the Cowboys defense? Or does he B) alter his traditional approach and play to the Dolphin’s weaknesses, besting them through strategy?

The answer would be easy if the strengths of the Cowboys defense matched the weaknesses of Miami, but unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Dallas’ favorite coverage this season, by a fairly significant margin, is Cover 1. In this coverage they’ve held opposing passing attacks to -0.21 EPA/play and -10.8% CPOE. Of their top coverages, it’s yielded the lowest yards/attempt, lowest YAC/reception, and the most interceptions.

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa loves Cover 1 as well. Against it, he’s posted a +0.50 EPA/play and a +4.3% CPOE to go with a gaudy 8/1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2023. The Cowboys love closing off the middle of the field with a safety and playing man coverage on the boundary and Tagovailoa loves playing against it. In the infamous words of my plumber, “something’s gotta give.”

If Quinn decides to scheme to the Dolphin’s weaknesses he can employ Cover 4 or quarters defense. Tagovailoa has been producing positive EPA against all major coverages this season, but he’s generally been at his least effective against quarters. His EPA/play of +0.20 is good and his 77.2% completion percentage is elite, but his damage is far less against this than it is against the other coverages.

Cover 4 is the Cowboys’ fourth most used coverage in 2023. They are holding opponents to -0.05 EPA/play and -11.2% CPOE. They are giving up some deep passes but holding opponents to a 53.3% completion percentage. While the performance between the two teams is significantly different in Cover 4, it’s not as wide of a chasm as it is against Cover 1.

With Tyreek Hill set to play on Sunday, the Cowboys can ill afford to play into the Dolphin’s hands in coverage. Hill is a league leader against man coverage is automatic against press. Cover 1 has extra risk when Hill is on the field. Then again, Cover 4 opens up opportunities underneath and in the running game. The Cowboys can’t afford to gift easy yards again this week either.

The solution is likely a mix of coverages. Coverages that are well-disguised and not according to the typical script. Quinn has been predictable in his coverage in the past and will have to actively work to avoid such transparency in a matchup such as this.

[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3]

Scouting the Bills: A Cowboys peek at personnel, tendencies and strengths

What offensive personnel Buffalo prefers, what their tendencies and effectiveness is in each group and what it means for the Cowboys. From @ReidDHanson

In Week 15 the Cowboys will test their hot streak against one of the best teams in the AFC. For only the second time in the Dak Prescott era, the Cowboys face the Bills. This game will mark the first time Prescott has played in Buffalo and offer Dallas a chance to stay in the hunt for homefield advantage in the playoffs.

While the Cowboys are well versed with many of their top NFC opponents like Philadelphia and San Francisco, AFC teams like the Bills are somewhat foreign. They boast the second-best offensive success rate in the NFL with the fourth-best EPA/play. They have one of the league’s premier WRs in Stephon Diggs and they have a perennial MVP candidate at QB with Josh Allen.

But how do the Bills win? What personnel do they like to use and what are their tendencies in those given personnel groups?

We dive into all of that today, scouting the Bills for the Cowboys’ Week 15 showdown.

 

Can the Cowboys offense copy the 49ers blueprint to beat the Eagles? Should they?

The Cowboys can learn a lot from the way the 49ers rolled the Eagles defense last week. Which items might Dallas borrow in Week 14? | From @ReidDHanson

When the Cowboys and Eagles last met, Dallas endured a significant drop in their offensive point production. Despite the Eagles struggles on defense this season, they were able to hold the Cowboys to just 23 points; nearly 10 points shy of their season average of 32.3 points per game. It was only the fourth time the Cowboys failed to score at least 30 points this season and something Dallas hopes to correct in their Week 14 matchup on Sunday night.

As the Cowboys strategize their attack for the upcoming showdown, they need only look to last week to see how the Eagles can be beaten. San Francisco had no trouble putting points up against the Eagles, beating them to the tune of 42-19 and laying out a blueprint for attack to anyone who may be interested in dethroning the defending conference champs.

With over 300 yards through the air and nearly 150 yards on the ground, the 49ers seemingly moved the ball at will last week. While their suffocating defense is probably due the lion’s share of the praise, it was the San Francisco offense the Cowboys may be able to best emulate.

The Cowboys have quietly taken some recent cues from Kyle Shanahan already this season.

Since their Week 5 matchup, Dallas has increased their motion usage, used their WRs as running options more often, and emphasized middle of the field passing opportunities. Many of the 49ers’ staples are getting adopted in Dallas and Mike McCarthy’s offense has never looked better.

Are more copycat moves on the horizon?

Here’s how the Cowboys fix their most underperforming personnel groupings

It’s time for the Cowboys to lean into their strengths and away from their weakness which means addressing certain personnel groups.

In many ways the roster dictates the success rates of the various personnel groups and whether coaches like it or not, they have to embrace what’s working and ease off what isn’t. 12 games into the 2023, the Cowboys have a pretty good indication where their personnel groups rank on offense.

Overall, the Dallas offense ranks third in the NFL in EPA, fifth in yards, and first in points scored. Despite all that success, they have some personnel groups who aren’t just bringing down the average, but they are producing at negative EPA output. In many ways, these personnel groups are hurting the Cowboys more than helping and should be adjusted or used more sparingly if the Cowboys want to keep the good times rolling through December.

Every team has their own specific strengths and weaknesses. Some are by design. Other by sheer luck of the draw. If a coach who prefers a wide-open spread offense doesn’t have a deep WR room, he may not be able to run 11 (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) or 10 (1RB, 0TE, 4WR) personnel as much as he’d like. If an old school coach who like smash mouth football doesn’t have a very talented TE and/or RB room, he may not be able to play 12 (1RB, 2TE, 2WR or 22 (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) as much as he’d like.

KaVontae Turpin is low-key a high-impact weapon Cowboys must utilize

KaVontae Turpin quietly leads the Cowboys in EPA/target so isn’t it time he takes on a bigger role in the Dallas offense? | From @ReidDHanson

When opponents prepare for the Cowboys, which players does one imagine they focus on? CeeDee Lamb has 90 receptions for 1,182 yards and seven touchdowns. It’s a pretty safe bet teams are preparing for him. Over the last six weeks alone, Jake Ferguson has 25 receptions for 308 yards and four touchdowns. Teams have definitely seen the film on Ferguson. Over the last four weeks, Brandin Cooks has 20 receptions for 332 yards and three touchdowns. Cooks has the deep speed and route-running ability that puts every secondary on notice.

Add in Tony Pollard’s game-breaking ability and Rico Dowdle’s rise as the newest explosive runner in Dallas, and you have a lot of weapons for opponents to worry about on this Cowboys offense. But there’s one player who in some ways stands out above the others. A player who only has 16 targets to his name in 2023 but has made the absolute most of those opportunities. A player who by all accounts is due a bigger role down the stretch,  KaVontae Turpin.

Teams are well aware of Turpin’s impact on football field. The former TCU product earned Pro Bowl honors as a rookie based on his return ability, and here in 2023 he’s widely regarded one of the most feared returners in the game. But on offense he’s played only a bit part.

As WR5, Turpin hasn’t had many offensive opportunities in 2023. With just 19 total touches, he’s been more complementary and gadget than legit offensive staple. Perhaps that’s a mistake. Turpin leads the Cowboys with 0.84 EPA/target this season. He’s making the most of his opportunities and it’s not hard to see how.

Blessed with elite speed and stop-start cutting ability that would make a water bug jealous, Turpin has the level of game-breaking skill to be a threat every time he’s on the field. His impact goes beyond just being a pass-catcher as well. Turpin has frequently been used in motion and as a runner. With eight carries for 79 yards, he’s averaging 9.9 yards/carry and a success rate of 62.5 percent. These two numbers indicate he’s not just getting the chunk yardage, but he’s also winning more opportunities than both Pollard (48.3% success rate) and Dowdle (46.0% SR).

There’s obvious concern Turpin’s 5-foot-9, 153-pound frame isn’t up to the task of a regular role on offense. So even though his efficiency stats show he should be getting WR3 opportunities, the added opportunities could dramatically impact the very efficiency he’s praised for. But a larger role than what he’s had should certainly be a consideration.

Both Gallup and Jalen Tolbert have been somewhat disappointing this season. They’ve peppered in good plays here and there but for the most part have failed to live up to their preseason expectations. Adding Turpin to the mix and dividing the snaps equally amongst all three would get the Cowboys’ most efficient and deadly weapon on the field more without saddling him with a burdensome workload.

Low key, Turpin has been the Cowboys most efficient offensive weapon. He needs to be part of the weekly gameplan and has the ability to take the Dallas offense to the next level. Opponents have enough to worry about when facing this offense. The Cowboys should give them one more.

[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3]

Here’s how Dak Prescott, Cowboys efficiency is setting the NFL standard

Dak Prescott has the Cowboys third down offense in rarefied air here in 2023. | From @ReidDHanson

In the NFL, games are often won or lost on third downs. While early downs are typically the most productive, it’s those critical third downs that make the difference between a drive stalling or a drive extending.

Dak Prescott has always been among the best in the league in this aspect. Since joining the Cowboys in 2016, he’s top-10 in both third down EPA and success rate on third downs. But here in 2023, he’s taking his third down prowess to new levels, averaging a jaw-dropping 0.553 adjusted EPA/play. It’s a number that’s 0.25 more than the No. 2 QB this season, and an output better than any QB has achieved in the last six seasons.

This isn’t the season something like this was supposed to happen. On a micro level, the Cowboys offense was undergoing a change in leadership. With Kellen Moore out, Mike McCarthy was finally able make the offense in his image. Growing pains were expected, and throughout the first five weeks, growing pains were experienced.

On a macro level, the NFL is shifting back to a two-high safety league. The bend-but-don’t break virus has been spreading throughout, as the Legion of Boom model fades into the background. Passing numbers are down across the league, and with it, many efficiency stats as well.

Despite fate’s best efforts to limit big plays and force offenses to dink and dunk their way down the field, Prescott and the Cowboys attack have found a way to post gaudy numbers without being needlessly reckless downfield.

Prescott has been opportunistic in 2023 and he’s often choosing to be most opportunistic on third downs.

As a team, the Cowboys are second in the NFL in their third down conversion rate. Considering how slowly they started the season, that’s a very impressive position to be 12 games into the season.

Will the good times keep rolling?

There’s no reason to think they’ll stop. Even with the increasingly difficult schedule, Prescott has been operating at peak levels within McCarthy’s system. It’s not smoke and mirrors but an every-down efficiency that can adapt to a variety of defensive schemes.

[affiliatewidget_smgtolocal]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3]

Cowboys’ DBs maximizing impact of dominant pass rush

Much of the secondary’s success is because of the pass rush but here’s why both parts working together makes Dallas their most optimal.

Defensive football is a synergistic dance between the many layers of a complete unit. While some players are transcendent and can impose their will on any given play, defense is generally regarded as a single-point failure situation where one weakness stands to undo the entire mission.

The Cowboys don’t have such obvious weaknesses. Their defensive plays in harmony with one another, offering high-end play at every layer and daring opponents to find a weakness to target.

The league thought they found a weakness in Dallas when Trevon Diggs was lost for season. Yet with DaRon Bland recently setting an NFL record in interceptions returned for touchdowns, the Cowboys inexplicably replaced one All-Pro with presumably another All-Pro.

The dominance of one layer allows the perfect opportunity for another layer to thrive. And as long as the Dallas offense does their part and puts points on the board, the defense is in position to do what they do best. Make plays.