Category: 2024 NFL Draft Grades

Dallas Cowboys’ best sleeper pick: Caelen Carson, CB, Wake Forest

The Cowboys got a great value pick in Wake Forest cornerback Caelen Carson in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Yes, Jerry Jones has a lot of weird things to say about the player evaluation process, and that bears out in free agency. But don’t sleep on Dallas’ scouting department, led by Will McClay — that’s where all the great draft picks come from. And in the 2024 draft, the Cowboys got a sleeper at cornerback in the person of Wake Forest’s Caelen Carson. I spoke with Carson at the scouting combine, and he talked with pride about his ability to take the playbook and make something out of it.

Which shows up on tape. Last season, Carson allowed 36 catches on 64 targets for 436 yards, 146 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, no interceptions, four pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 98.2. Had Coleman turned a few of those pass breakups into interceptions, his metrics would more closely mimic what you see on the field. Maybe this is why the Cowboys landed him with the 174th overall pick in the fifth round.

I also asked Carson for his favorite NCAA play, and he went right to his battle with Keon Coleman when Wake Forest played Florida State last season.

“Keon Coleman tape. Slot fade, I pressed him with outside leverage because I knew it was going to be a fade. I used my technique and flipped him to the outside. Didn’t turn my head, because he was in the slot, and there was too much space to the sideline, and he’s a big guy. If I had turned my head, he could have pushed me.”

Despite quarterback dysfunction, the Falcons’ offense has the chance to be great

The Falcons’ new quarterback situation confused everybody, but their offense can still be great in 2024 and beyond.

Okay… we know. This is not how anybody saw it going.

Less than two months after the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed, the Falcons selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft.

Whatever reasons the Falcons had for signing Cousins and then adding Penix when this means that Penix may have to sit for multiple years, there’s a lot to say about what Atlanta did to the rest of its offense that could make it far more dynamic than it has been in years. And that’s been eclipsed by all the weirdness. In addition to Cousins’ NFL pedigree, and Penix’ explosive potential, there’s the matter of three other offensive skill players selected in the first round by this team — tight end Kyle Pitts in 2021, receiver Drake London in 2022, and running back Bijan Robinson in 2023.

In addition to all those moves, the Falcons moved on from head coach and offensive shot-caller Arthur Smith, who was hamstrung by his quarterbacks last season, and didn’t seem to understand how to best use his best players anyway. In comes head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, firmly from the Sean McVay tree.

But wait… there’s more! The Falcons also signed former Eagles and Bears receiver Darnell Mooney to a three-year, $39 million contract with $26 million guaranteed, and they also added former Cardinals receiver Rondale Moore.

That’s a lot of targets for those footballs — whoever may be throwing them — but again, let’s cast aspersions aside and look at the talent here. Robinson should have a much better sense of how to use his talent, Cousins is a natural fit in Robinson’s offense if Robinson brings the heavy play-action/motion stuff with three-receiver sets, and we’ll see in the preseason how Penix fits in after playing in Ryan Grubb’s NFL-conversant offense.

The Falcons’ passing game could be one of those great marriages that just started off with a really weird first date.

 

 

Will Caleb Williams be the one to erase the Bears’ 75-year quarterback curse?

Caleb Williams will have a lot of help in his quest to break the Chicago Bears’ 75-year Quarterback Curse.

“It pisses me off a little bit, to be honest with you. We were hired to break a cycle. The same thing when we were in Kansas City. Coach [Andy] Reid, all of us were brought there to break a cycle. And we did. And no one talks about those days anymore; it’s all about what they are right now.”

That’s what Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles said in March about his franchise’s historic quarterback drought. You can understand the sensitivity here — when your last great quarterback was Sid Luckman just after World War II, and you’re still riding on those fumes, it’s a bit embarrassing. Not that it’s Poles’ fault — he inherited Justin Fields when he became the GM in 2022, and the cycle-breaking he talked about with Andy Reid happened in 2017 when Poles was the Chiefs’ director of college scouting, and Kansas City took that Patrick Mahomes guy.

So now, there’s USC’s Caleb Williams, selected first overall to break that cycle. There isn’t much Williams can’t do on the field, and while he could stand to be a bit more regimented in the pocket, the explosive plays (he had 59 as a passer and 17 as a rusher for a USC offense that was not designed well) are singularly impressive.

Then, with the ninth overall pick, the Bears selected Washington’s Rome Odunze, who has the attributes to make that passing game much better on the target side. Odunze gives Williams that most valuable of receivers — the guy who’s open, even when he isn’t open.

Receiver D.J. Moore was highly productive in his first season with the Bears in 2023 as part of the trade with the Carolina Panthers that ultimately gave Chicago the Williams pick, and he’s the ideal go and post and corner receiver to scald cornerbacks deep in new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s system.

And then, there’s veteran Keenan Allen, acquired in a March trade as the Los Angeles Chargers were offloading players as part of their salary cap issues. Allen has never been known for his breakaway speed, but he’s still a near-peerless route runner, and he was good for 19 explosive plays last season… so this isn’t just an old guy standing on the field waiting for the ball to come to him so he can catch it and fall down.

Add in Cole Kmet as a more than serviceable tight end option, and let’s just say that if Caleb Williams ultimately adds his name to the Bears’ Quarterback List of Doom, it won’t be for lack of trying on Poles’ part. Perhaps this is where the Bears finally break that cycle.

How the Steelers switched their offensive line from weakness to strength

In the last two drafts, the Pittsburgh Steelers transformed their offensive line from a glaring weakness to a potential strength.

“We’re looking for guys with talent. Oftentimes that talent is coupled with experience. It’s good to have a group that is mature as players and as people, and I think that’s reflective of the collective that you’re talking about. All that means is we should expect those guys to have a high floor and maybe have a good presentation of what they’re capable of early on, and for that, we’re excited certainly.”

That’s what Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said of the offensive line pieces he and general manager Omar Khan put together in the draft, and why wouldn’t he be excited? The Steelers’ offensive line has been a major problem for multiple years and multiple offensive playcallers, and new OC Arthur Smith will at least have a wildly upgraded front five with which to do whatever it is he is going to do with his playbook.

The Steelers went all-in here, selecting Washington tackle Troy Fautanu with the 20th overall pick, West Virginia center Zach Frazier with the 51st overall pick in the second round, and South Dakota State guard Mason McCormick with the 119th overall pick in the fourth round. Add in veteran guard Isaac Seumalo (one of two bright spots on that line last season), and 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones (he was the other), and all of a sudden, Pittsburgh’s primary weakness outside of that pesky quarterback thing becomes a serious strength.

Last season, Fautanu allowed two sacks and 23 total pressures for a Washington passing game in which Michael Penix Jr. attempted 117 passes of 20 or more air yards. So, we’re pretty sure he can hold his position for a long time at any level. And he’s got some interesting tricks up his sleeve.

I didn’t get to McCormick’s tape until I was at the Indianapolis airport about to fly home from the scouting combine, but he stood out right away when I did. Ignore the small-school bias — this guy is a wrecking machine inline and as a puller.

As for Frazier, this guy is pure nasty on the field, and his determination showed up at West Virginia with his ability to play through injuries, as well as an on-field demeanor that might give even NFL defenders pause after he rounds out the technical aspects of his position.

“Sometimes in the draft, a lot of great players and, selfishly, certainly things break your way, and they feel like that, last night, and today or tonight,” Smith said after the Steelers had taken Fautanu and Frazier, and before they selected McCormick. “But I’m just really excited to get a chance to work with both of them. And, you know, even Broderick [Jones], still early in his career as well. There’s a lot of guys, Isaac [Seumalo], all these linemen. I’m really fired up to get a chance to work with them.”

Once again, the excitement is palpable — and certainly understandable.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Best defensive scheme fits from the 2024 NFL draft

From the Cardinals’ new secondary to cornerback talent for the Eagles and Lions, Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar get into the best scheme fits from the 2024 NFL draft.

When teams select players in the draft, they’re not just basing those picks on the prospects’ athletic attributes — they’re also looking at how those prospects fit in the structures of their schemes.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” Greg (of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup) and Doug (of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group) discuss their favorite defensive scheme firs from the 2024 NFL draft. Greg and Doug already discussed their favorite offensive scheme fits in this draft, and you can find that right here.

  • The Arizona Cardinals’ secondary with cornerbacks Elijah Jones and Max Melton, and safety Dadrian Taylor-Demerson;
  • The Detroit Lions’ cornerback group with Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.;
  • The Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary with cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and defensive back Cooper DeJean;
  • The Dallas Cowboys’ defensive line with DL Marshawn Kneeland;
  • The Buffalo Bills’ secondary with safety Cole Bishop;
  • The Green Bay Packers’ safeties with Javon Bullard and Kitan Oladapo;
  • The San Francisco 49ers’ secondary with Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

Cleveland Browns’ best sleeper pick: Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville

The Browns got a sleeper slot receiver in Jamari Thrash in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL draft.

The Browns had Elijah Moore, Amari Cooper, and David Bell as their primary slot receivers last season, but Louisville’s Jamari Thrash, who the team got with the 156th overall pick in the fifth round, adds a different kind of juice. At 5′ 11¾” and 188 pounds, Thrash was going to have to become an expert at getting open off the line to survive at any level of football, and that’s what he did. Last year with the Cardinals (his first year at Louisville after four at Georgia State), Thrash caught 64 passes in 96 targets for 846 yards and six touchdowns. He’s not an alpha X receiver at the next level, but he is an interesting component to Cleveland’s passing game.

“Jamari, for us, we view him as a guy that can play inside and outside,” Browns director of player personnel Dan Saganey said of the pick. “He had a really productive college career at Georgia State, and then decided to transfer up to Louisville last year and had another big year there. So, a guy with speed, a guy that showed up really well through the Senior Bowl process. We really enjoyed getting to know him through our spring scouting process. “And, you know, with these picks at this time of the Draft, we’re really looking to find players that we’re looking forward to developing, having our coaches get their hands on him and, you know, see what they can do. So, he’s a competitive kid. He’s had production inside and out throughout his college career, and he’s a good playmaker with the ball in his hands. So, add him to the room and let him compete.”

If you want to know more about Thrash, read our Jarrett Bailey’s interview with him.

Cincinnati Bengals’ best sleeper pick: Josh Newton, CB, TCU

TCU rookie cornerback Josh Newton has everything it takes to become a big part of the Cincinnati Bengals’ secondary.

After three seasons at Louisiana-Monroe, Newton transferred to TCU in time for the 2022 season. All he did for the Horned Frogs over the next two season was to make All-Big-12 twice, so the jump to a higher level was no issue whatsoever. Perhaps he dropped in the draft as a smaller cornerback who didn’t test well at the combine, but defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo knew exactly what his team was getting with the 149th overall pick in the fifth round.

“He was real good. [Secondary/cornerbacks coach Charles] Burks did a great job with him communicating. I sat in on a Zoom, and again, he can really talk the game. Smart football guy, good football awareness. As I mentioned, that kind of comes through when you talk to the guy. He’s just an overall good human being, which is always good to add.”

If Uncle Lou likes him, we’re in. Not that we already weren’t. The 5′ 10⅝”, 190-pound Newton can play inside and outside (which is how the Bengals envision his deployment), and last season, he allowed 25 catches on 52 targets for 303 yards, 120 yards after the catch, one touchdown, one interception, six pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 64.8.

Chicago Bears’ best sleeper pick: Austin Booker, EDGE, Kansas

Kansas rookie edge-rusher Austin Booker could be a surprise star for the Chicago Bears’ defense.

Bears fans who were over the moon with the picks of Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze in the first round might have cooled a bit when their team selected an offensive tackle and a punter with their remaining two picks. What about the need at edge-rusher? Well, general manager Ryan Poles apparently had similar concerns, so the Bears traded back into the fifth round and took Kansas edge defense Austin Booker with the 144th overall pick.

Last season for the Jayhawks, Booker had nine sacks and 38 total pressures, and though he’s a smaller man for the position (6′ 4½’, 240), his speed off the edge speaks volumes, and it will be accentuated over time with a more complete palette of pass-rush moves.

Carolina Panthers’ best sleeper pick: Chau Smith-Wade, CB, Washington State

Cornerback Chau Smith-Wade could be an immediate slot force for the Carolina Panthers.

Smith-Wade played quite a bit outside in college, but projects to the slot for his NFL team. He was strong in coverage over four seasons with the Cougars (three as a starter), allowing 60 catches on 113 targets for 790 yards, 247 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, three interceptions, 16 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 76.2. He also has experience in the box and as a blitzer at the line of scrimmage, but the Panthers want to see him in the slot, and he’s ready for that challenge, despite the fact that he had just 30 snaps there in college. The Panthers got him with the 157th pick in the fifth round.

“At nickel you’re never cold, you’re either in the run fit, you’re in the box or you’re guarding those quick guys in the slot, so you’re never cold at nickel,” he said. “I really love that about nickel and the defensive back variety pack, out of the corners and safety, just being that nickel, you’re closer to the ball.”

Buffalo Bills’ best sleeper pick: Daequan Hardy, CB, Penn State

The Bills got a sixth-round sleeper in Penn State cornerback Daequan Hardy, who could help redefine Buffalo’s rebuilding secondary.

We’re not sure how the Steelers missed out on Hardy; the Pittsburgh native played 7-on-7 football as a kid with Joey Porter Jr. and Mike Tomlin’s son, Dino. In any event, a Bills secondary that got old seemingly overnight will benefit from Hardy’s presence. Last season for the Nittany Lions, Hardy allowed 26 catches on 48 targets for 318 yards, 164 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, five pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 71.4. Not bad for a player selected with the 219th overall pick in the sixth round.

At 5′ 9⅜” and 178 pounds and a wingspan that’s in the first percentile for cornerbacks since 1999, Hardy is absolutely a slot defender at the NFL level, but he has the potential to be a good one.