Category: 2022 playoffs

Mistakes doom Cowboys again as their season ends in San Fran, 19-12

The Cowboys’ season once again comes to an end at the hands of Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. | From @KDDrummondNFL

With all of the good vibes and positive takeaways from their wild-card win propelling them into the week, things felt hopeful for the Dallas Cowboys going into San Francisco. A near-perfect performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers save for a yippie kicker, had a lot of people believing the Cowboys were more the team from the middle of the season than the team down the stretch. Alas, it wasn’t to be the case.

They certainly weren’t overmatched, but the mistakes that had plagued Dallas throughout the year were joined by two untimely injuries. Re-invented run stuffer Carlos Watkins was lost with a calf. Do-it-all RB Tony Pollard was lost to a high ankle sprain. Combined with a return of INT-throwing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys squandered a chance to make their first NFC Championship game since the mid-1990s. A stout defensive effort couldn’t maintain their composure and with a chance to tie Prescott had a horrific set of plays. A three-and-out when they had to score to tie and Dallas finds themselves in offseason mode after losing, 19-12.

The Cowboys made several blunders on the game, including two interceptions off the arm of Prescott in the first half. That was compounded by Trevon Diggs missing two interceptions on what ended up being the 49ers lone touchdown drive of the game. It was a drive where Dallas thought they ended it with a sack, but a downfield hold gave the 49ers new life.

Sprinkle in bad direction decision by kick returner Kavontae Turpin on what could’ve been a touchdown and it put Dallas in a hole with three minutes remaining.  Needing to drive for a win, Prescott almost threw a PIck-6, missed an open Michael Gallup downfield, and then stepped into a sack.

Dallas actually got the ball back with under a minute to go, but the offense wasn’t able to do much with it from the shadow of their own end zone as TE Dalton Schultz cost the team with two mental blunders that derailed their last-ditch effort.

For a team that admitted they were nervous in last year’s loss, they certainly didn’t appear to have enough additional composure to end the 49ers winning streak before it reached 12.

And now, the offseason begins for Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff, whatever that may look like after interviews.

WATCH: Cowboys special teams finds redemption with FF, FG

Amidst the chaos, the Dallas special teams delivered redemption with a pair of big moments from Kelvin Joseph and Brett Maher. | From @CDBurnett7

After the Cowboys’ opening drive of the second half was shut down, the Dallas special teams had a moment of redemption. In the midst of the kicker struggles, cornerback Kelvin Joseph made his mark in San Francisco. Joseph has faced criticism for his penalties and struggles at cornerback since being a second-round pick a year ago but this moment must feel sweet.

Even then, there may be a sweeter moment on the ensuing drive. The Cowboys knocked on the door to take the lead but a drop by running back Ezekiel Elliott that was nearly intercepted ended the drive and out trotted kicker Brett Maher.

Albeit a 25-yard kick, it must take extra weight off of Maher’s shoulder to tie the game and break the ice against the 49ers. If he can continue to make kicks, it changes everything in San Francisco.

Cowboys RB Pollard ruled out for second half in San Francisco

Tony Pollard’s day is over in San Francisco after an ankle injury, and now the running workload falls on Elliott and Davis. | From @CDBurnett7

Dallas will be without one of their big weapons in the second half, as running back Tony Pollard is ruled out with an ankle injury after being carted off late in the second quarter. He finishes the game with six carries for 22 yards and two catches for 11 yards.

The current situation will put the workload on running back Ezekiel Elliott, who has four carries for nine yards while Malik Davis will handle the remaining carries. Davis has 38 carries for 161 yards on the year with one touchdown to show. Going against a strong pass rush, the run game is key and the performance of the remaining running backs can turn the tides in San Francisco.

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard carted off with ankle injury

The Cowboys’ offense took a huge hit with their home-run threat carted to the locker room after an ankle injury. | From @CDBurnett7

After the 49ers knotted the score at six, Dallas took the field with just over three minutes to play in the first half and a chance for a double dip. Following a huge fourth-down conversion, the Cowboys’ home run threat was tackled ackwardly.

Running back Tony Pollard made a wide-open catch and gained eight yards to the San Francisco 18-yard line, but the defender came down on his left ankle and he crawled on his knees before waiting for trainers.

Pollard was helped to the tent by two trainers and it didn’t look good for him. A few minutes later, he was carted to the locker room with an air cast on his leg, a brutal sight for Dallas.

In his absence, Malik Davis will step into the speed role at running back while Ezekiel Elliott would likely get the majority of carries.

WATCH: Prescott divine as Cowboys take lead, but oh, that kicker…

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys responded after the interception but the Maher nightmare continued on the extra point. | From @CDBurnett7

The Cowboys offense got off to a slow start and an ugly interception from quarterback Dak Prescott took the wind out of the sails early in San Francisco. Wide receiver Michael Gallup lacked effort on the play but the defense stepped up after the mishap, only allowing a field goal on a short field.

On the next Dallas drive, the offense responded. The run game delivered with five runs for 25 yards, which set up a big play to wide receiver Noah Brown during the drive for 18 yards. This included a fourth-down conversion from wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, discarding a defender. Two plays later, the play-action struck again with a touchdown to tight end Dalton Schultz.

Prescott was 7-7 on the drive for 41 yards, plus a key 11-yard designed run that got Dallas within goal-to-go.

Following the huge response, the Brett Maher chronicles continued. A kick that looked ugly off his foot was blocked and it’s 6-0 Dallas. If it wasn’t already, it may be time to start going for two.

Carlos Watkins ruled out vs 49ers

Cowboys DL Carlos Watkins stayed down after injury but eventually walked off under his own power. – Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) January 23, 2023 The Cowboys’ defense is being put to the test early after an untimely interception from quarterback Dak …

The Cowboys’ defense is being put to the test early after an untimely interception from quarterback Dak Prescott. During the ensuing 49ers drive, defensive tackle Carlos Watkins went down but limped to the sideline under his own power.

Watkins and the Dallas defensive line started strong in San Francisco, limitjng the run and making quarterback Brock Purdy scramble often. If Watkins is unable to go, it’s a tough loss considering the early success.

Here’s how Trent Williams, 49ers coaches interrupted Cowboys’ kicking warmups

Tempers flared pregame with some mind games from the 49ers followed by a field visit by the Cowboys owner to make his presence known. | From @cdburnett7

The 49ers’ mental games started instantly in San Francisco. Cowboys kicker Brett Maher was going through his pregame routine, a very important one considering his 1-for-5 outing on extra points in the wild card round before a group of 49ers players and coaches got in his way.

A spirited meeting between plays from both teams ensued, with a star for the 49ers chirping at Dallas and it even sparked the the Cowboys owner to come down and speak to his kicker. Take a look at the full string of events.

Cowboys-49ers Inactives: Jason Peters out on his birthday, Kearse in

The Cowboys’ birthday boy will have to celebrate on the sidelines as the Cowboys and 49ers announce inactives for the divisional duel.

The Cowboys and 49ers both come into the divisional round contest near 100%. Dallas will be without the birthday boy as offensive tackle Jason Peters is inactive after he suffered a hip injury in the wild card round against the Buccaneers. In his absence, the pair of Tyler Smith and Connor McGovern stepped up and made quarterback Dak Prescott look comfortable in the pocket so Peters will be celebrating his 41st from the sideline.

Safety Jayron Kearse left the game in Tampa Bay during the second half with a knee injury but pleaded to media during the week that he would be ready on game day and he’s active to lead the Cowboys safety room. Tight end Peyton Hendershot is inactive after an injury also suffered during the wild card game, so Dallas will be shorthanded upfront against a prolific pass rush.

On the other side, San Francisco has their full cast ready. Starting defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Samson Ebukam were limited on the first two days of practice but practiced fully heading into game day. With a NFC Championship spot on the line, take a look at the inactives for Cowboys-49ers.

Brock Purdy’s success may not be sustainable, can Cowboys capitalize?

The rookie has been defying odds with his splits indicating a regression could be in store if only the Cowboys can take advantage. | From @ReidDHanson

File this under “famous last words,” but at some point Brock Purdy’s luck is going to run out. Eventually, he has to regress to the mean. The bubble has to burst. The ship has to sail. The mistakes have to come. Right?

As the Dallas Cowboys prepare to take the field later Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers for their divisional round matchup, they have to feel good facing off against a rookie. Even a rookie that’s been pretty darn lights out.

Since taking the reins in Week 13, Purdy has put up an impressive stat line. He’s posted 1,374 yards through the air, completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s driven the 49ers offense to a No: 1 ranking in EPA (expected points added) and he’s gone undefeated doing it.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan, has a reputation for making things easy on his signal callers. He applies a run-heavy attack, uses motion to move defenders and to expose coverages and he designs plays that uncover receivers and make reads easy. Purdy is the latest beneficiary.

Mike McCarthy recently discussed how the Cowboys are scouting Purdy and none of it involves college tape. “He’s not a rookie anymore in our eyes,” McCarthy said. “You don’t see a young player making panicked decisions.”

While ignoring the strengths and weakness of Purdy’s scouting report aren’t advisable (or believable), the point has been made: Purdy is a legitimate NFL QB who’s more than capable of winning playoff games with this ultra-loaded 49ers squad.

49ers enjoy slim statistical edge over Cowboys, but it can be overcome

The Cowboys and 49ers are on a collision course in the playoffs for the second season in a row. The margin for error this week is tiny. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

Oscar Wilde once said “Life imitates art” and for this season’s Dallas Cowboys it couldn’t be more true.  In many ways, this season has mirrored last season. The Cowboys finished both campaigns with a 12-5 record and as destiny would have it, they faced off with the San Francisco 49ers in the postseason.  However, unlike last season, the Cowboys are the wild-card team and the 49ers are the team that is the favorite and hosting the game.

The Cowboys kicked off their postseason run with an impressive 31-14 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Entering the game the team faced questions about playing on natural grass, the drought between road playoff wins and even the record against Tom Brady. When the final seconds dripped off the clock, all of those were answered with resounding confirmation this team is resilient and unafraid of a challenge.

Enter the San Francisco 49ers, and boy are they a challenge. They have a formidable defense, one of the top scoring offenses in the league and a bevy of weapons they can attack a defense with. Taking a step back from the physical talent, they are a well coached team led by Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds in the game, and by one of the most revered defensive minds in the league in coordinator Demeco Ryans.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.