NFC Championship preview: How the 49ers can beat the Rams

The San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams meet for the third time this season, now with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Here is how the 49ers beat the Rams.

And then, there were two.

NFC West rivals square off Sunday with a trip — or at least a short excursion — to Super Bowl LVI on the line. When the Los Angeles Rams kick things off against the San Francisco 49ers, it will be the third meeting this year between these two franchises.

Unfortunately for the Rams and their fans, the first two meetings did not go their way.

Back in Week 10, the 49ers won in dominant fashion, topping the Rams by a final score of 31-10. That game was perhaps notable for how the 49ers began the game, putting together an 18-play drive that covered over 11 minutes of game time, nearly the entire first quarter, that gave the 49ers an early 7-0 lead.

San Francisco followed that with a Pick-Six of Matthew Stafford on the Rams’ ensuing possession, and things were trending in their direction early.

Then in Week 18, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a thumb injury and the 49ers needing a win to get into the playoffs, San Francisco pulled out a three-point win in overtime, setting the stage for their playoff run.

So how does the third meeting between these teams play out? Do the 49ers make it a perfect 3-0 against the Rams on the season, or does Los Angeles become the second-straight team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium?

Here is what the 49ers have to do to beat the Rams.

NFC Championship preview: How the Rams can beat the 49ers

The three things the Rams need to do against the 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl.

And then, there were two.

NFC West rivals square off Sunday with a trip — or at least a short excursion — to Super Bowl LVI on the line. When the Los Angeles Rams kick things off against the San Francisco 49ers, it will be the third meeting this year between these two franchises.

Unfortunately for the Rams and their fans, the first two meetings did not go their way.

Back in Week 10, the 49ers won in dominant fashion, topping the Rams by a final score of 31-10. That game was perhaps notable for how the 49ers began the game, putting together an 18-play drive that covered over 11 minutes of game time, nearly the entire first quarter, that gave the 49ers an early 7-0 lead.

San Francisco followed that with a Pick-Six of Matthew Stafford on the Rams’ ensuing possession, and things were trending in their direction early.

Then in Week 18, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a thumb injury and the 49ers needing a win to get into the playoffs, San Francisco pulled out a three-point win in overtime, setting the stage for their playoff run.

So how does the third meeting between these teams play out? Do the 49ers make it a perfect 3-0 against the Rams on the season, or does Los Angeles become the second-straight team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium?

Here is what the Rams have to do to beat the 49ers.

4-Down Territory: Aaron Rodgers’ future, overtime rules, picking AFC/NFC champs

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield discuss the NFL’s most pressing topics in this Week’s 4-Down Territory.

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We have a special guest in this week’s “4-Down Territory,” as Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield joins Doug Farrar to discuss the NFL’s most pressing topics. Erstwhile host Luke Easterling will be back next week, but Mark hit it out of the park regarding Aaron Rodgers’ future plans, how to fix the NFL’s overtime mess, and who will represent the NFC and AFC in Super Bowl XVI.

George Kittle: A leverage story

A quick look at one of the many ways George Kittle is a threat in the passing game.

As football fans try and catch their collective breath after an amazing NFL divisional round, thoughts are starting to turn to the AFC and NFC Championship games and how each of the four teams remaining can advance.

To do that, it helps to look at each of the four teams and highlight potential problems they present for their opponents. For the Los Angeles Rams, one of the things they will need to worry about when the San Francisco 49ers have the football, in addition to Deebo Samuel and the creative ways the 49ers structure their offense, is tight end George Kittle.

Kittle has been a thorn in the side of the Rams for his entire NFL career. In nine games against the organization, Kittle has caught 49 passes for 706 yards and five touchdowns, so you can bet the Rams will be focused on where #85 is on every play Sunday evening.

Part of what makes Kittle dangerous is how effective he is when presented with opportunities to stress defenders to both the inside and the outside in space. The 49ers provide Kittle with these opportunities as much as possible, and the results are often positive for the offense.

In the first half of Saturday night’s win over the Green Bay Packers, Kittle worked himself open on this quick slant route, working against Preston Smith in space. You can see how Kittle’s alignment in the slot, and the fear of a route breaking to the outside, combine to stress the leverage of the defender and give Kittle a path to cut inside on the slant for a quick read and throw from Jimmy Garoppolo:

The tight end releases vertically off the line, and gets into Smith’s frame after three steps. Kittle then drives his left foot into the turf, and Smith responds by opening his hips to the sideline, ever-so-slightly. That is all that Kittle needs to break to the inside and cross the defender’s face, working himself open to the inside after stressing Smith’s leverage to the outside.

All the while, Garoppolo is just waiting for Kittle to make his break.

Now, you are probably thinking this completion is due to the matchup, which is a fair point. “Let me see Kittle do this against someone with better coverage skills, Mark.”

Okay.

On this play, Kittle is working against cornerback Eric Stokes. As with the previous example, the same scenario plays out on this completion. Kittle releases vertically, gets into Stokes’ frame, stresses his outside leverage with a hard step in that direction with his right foot, and then works across the cornerback’s face to get open for the quick throw from Garoppolo.

As the Rams begin their preparations for this weekend, crafting a plan for Kittle, and in particular these routes from the tight end, should be at or near the top of the to-do list.

A valiant effort from Josh Allen and the Bills comes up short

Thirteen seconds separated the Bills from the AFC Championship game. They also mark just how close this team is, because of how great their quarterback is.

Thirteen seconds.

Over the next few weeks and months in bars and restaurants around Buffalo, those two simple words will carry a lot of meaning. They will spark arguments, lead to people buying each other drinks, and perhaps even generate new friendships and relationships.

Friendships and relationships forged over what might have been.

In Super Bowl XXIII, the San Francisco 49ers topped the Cincinnati Bengals by a final score of 20-16. It would be the last NFL game for legendary coach Bill Walsh, as he witnessed Joe Montana drive San Francisco down the field and hit Jon Taylor wit ha touchdown pass to give the 49ers the lead late.

After the game ended, Walsh walked to midfield to embrace one of his former coaches, Sam Wyche, now the head coach of the Bengals. The two walked off the field together, amazed at the game they had just witnessed. But prior to that moment between two men who loved each other dearly, Wyche was caught on the Cincinnati sideline, muttering to no one in particular, these three words in the wake of Taylor’s catch:

Thirty-nine seconds.

The margin between winning and losing is so razor-thin in the NFL, and both the Bengals back in 1989 and the Bills of Buffalo Bills of today are living proof. After losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship game, the Bills had their sights set on revenge. Revenge for what was lost a season ago. Revenge for what could have been, but was not.

At multiple moments this evening, it looked like the Bills, led by their quarterback Josh Allen, had secured that revenge. Allen was, in a word, spectacular. He completed 27 of 37 passes for 329 yards and four touchdowns, and was the Bills’ leading rusher on the night as well, carrying the football for 68 yards on 11 carries.

In reality, however, statistics alone do not do his performance justice. Nor do the replays, although they do come close. For example, Allen’s rocket to Gabriel Davis to give the Bills the lead with just under two minutes remaining is a classic Allen moment, the kind of throw that Bills fans only dreamed about when the organization drafted him in the first round a few years ago, to the chagrin of many:

Then of course came the two-point conversion, another rabbit Allen pulled from his ever-growing hat:

Unfortunately, Allen would be needed again. Because the quarterback patrolling the other sideline is, much like the Buffalo passer, a freak of nature put on this planet to awe and inspire with how they play the toughest position in sports. Patrick Mahomes found Tyreek Hill on an in-breaking route, and suddenly, the Bills were trailing anew.

But with 17 seconds remaining, Allen and Davis connected again, on another rocket shot that seemed like it was launched from the south of Florida, and not on a chilly field in Missouri:

Thirteen seconds.

By now, you know how this story ends. Mahomes with just 13 seconds to work with somehow drives the Chiefs into field goal range, and Harrison Butker splits the uprights to force overtime. And a coin toss, which the Chiefs win, turning Allen into something absurdly painful in that moment.

A spectator.

Allen and the Bills offense could only watch as Mahomes went back to work, ultimately finding Travis Kelce with the game-winning touchdown, sending Arrowhead Stadium into a frenzy, and the Bills home for the second-straight year.

Eventually, the chill of a Buffalo winter will give way to spring, and the sun will hang longer in the sky every afternoon and evening. Thoughts about what might have been will give way to dreams of what could be. Around dinner tables and at corner bars, the agony behind those two words marking a snapshot of time will recede into hope anew.

With good reason.

While the line of demarcation between winning and losing is, as we have seen this weekend, razor-thin, what can bend that line in a team’s favor is the guy. The quarterback who can defy the odds. The quarterback who can beat a defensive front with his legs, and a secondary with his arm and mind.

The Bills have that quarterback. A quarterback who is carving out his own legend in upper New York state, similar to a guy who used to patrol that sideline wearing a #12 jersey, leading the Bills to multiple Super Bowl appearances. A quarterback who has defied the odds, proven the experts wrong, and reshaped how the position is evaluated and viewed for the future.

So next fall, when the fans are again meeting at Kettles, or Prohibition, or tailgating outside of Highmark Stadium, there will be hope. Hope for what could be in the season ahead. Hope provided by the influx of new talent, acquired via free agency and the draft. Hope for what the promise of a new season offers, after having been so close so many times before.

The words thirteen seconds will become a rallying cry of sorts, acknowledging just how close this team is to greatness.

And how their quarterback is already there.

Because the day is coming when it is the opposition, and not the Bills, who are left to wonder what might have been.

Is the end here for Tom Brady?

Was this the final time that living legend Tom Brady laced them up? Only time will tell.

Just when it looked like Tom Brady was going to pull off the impossible again, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp delivered a gigantic play to put the Los Angeles Rams in position for the game-winning field goal.

And perhaps send the legendary quarterback off into the sunset of retirement.

Sunday began with reports that the veteran quarterback would be considering hanging up his cleats at the end of the season. And as the Rams built a 27-3 lead down in Tampa, it seemed like Brady’s final game might end on the wrong side of a blowout loss.

But turnovers and mistakes from the Rams allowed Brady and the Buccaneers offense to claw back into the game. And with under two minutes to go, Leonard Fournette skipped around right end and into the end zone to tie the game at 27.

Could Brady have done it again? Could the legendary quarterback follow up his 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl LI with a 27-3 comeback to keep his current Super Bowl hopes alive?

Unfortunately for Brady and the Buccaneers, Stafford and the Rams still had some time left to work with.

The big play came as Stafford hung in the pocket in the face of a blitz from the slot, and targeted his favorite receiver deep downfield:

As always, “the dots” give a good overhead look at how the play unfolded:

You can see the blitz from the slot, and how Kupp managed to get behind the coverage for the huge play.

What followed was a mad scramble downfield, as the Rams needed to stop the clock with a spike to set up the field goal attempt. Stafford managed to get his troops to the line and drive the football into the turf, allowing Matt Gay a chance to win the game.

Gay, like his teammates seconds earlier, delivered:

For the Rams, what awaits is a date with their rivals the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game in the familiar confines of SoFi Stadium.

For the Buccaneers and Brady, what awaits now are the decisions that follow in the wake of a season that ends with a loss in the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s front office did an incredible job this off-season finding a way to bring the gang back for another run. But numerous key players are set to hit free agency, including Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, Ryan Jensen, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, and Carlton Davis.

Jason Licht will need to work some cap magic to get the gang back for one more run. Perhaps he can accomplish that goal, but then the next issue is Brady. Was the smoke of Sunday morning a sign that the veteran passer is truly going to ride off into the sunset?

Early in the game today Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth teased some comments from the quarterback that emerged from their pre-game production meeting. Later in the game, those words were unveiled. When asked how he wanted it to end, Brady indicated that he wanted it to end with a Super Bowl, but that “might not be possible this season.”

The beauty — and curse — of sport is that it does not always end the way you want it to as an athlete. For all those who get the chance to ride off into the sunset holding a Lombardi Trophy aloft like John Elway, there are those who see it end like Dan Marino, or Brett Favre, or other countless quarterbacks and athletes who saw their careers end with a loss, and the feeling of coming up short the last time you laced them up.

Worse still, is the feeling some athletes have at the end, not only coming up short, but also recognizing that the skills of yesteryear that put them in that position were also artifacts of seasons from long ago.

That was not the case with Brady, who finished this season as one of the top candidates for the league’s Most Valuable Player award, and certainly looked throughout the course of the year that he could indeed play until he was 45, or older.

However, his first year in Tampa Bay might have offered the perfect script to ride off into the sunset. A title in his first season out of New England, outdueling young gun Patrick Mahomes in the big game. But the allure of another title run, complete with the roster largely intact, proved too good to pass up.

But again, sports have a way of changing the script. The Buccaneers battled injuries all season, unlike a year ago, and while they managed to win the division and host a pair of playoff games, the season ended with Brady and Tampa Bay coming up just short of completing a miraculous comeback, and being forced to see Stafford and the Rams celebrate a miracle of their own.

For longtime Brady observers, there was something else noticeable about the end. Brady, at midfield after the game, shaking hands with Rams safety Eric Weddle. An air of relief was almost visible on the quarterback’s face. As if the job, regardless of outcome, was done:

Was this the end? Perhaps it was, or perhaps Brady has one more run left in him. Only time will tell. If this was indeed Brady’s final game, it is in a sense fitting that it ended with him pulling out a near-miraculous comeback, leaving it all on the field, and going out with his head held high. And showing that despite the result, he still had it.

Breaking down the Matthew Stafford touchdown to Cooper Kupp

Diving into how Matthew Stafford was able to connect with Cooper Kupp on a 70-yard touchdown pass.

The Los Angeles Rams could not have asked for a better start to their divisional round contest with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as the visitors are out to an early 17-3 lead early in the second quarter.

One of the big plays from the Rams offense in the early going was a huge 70-yard touchdown strike from Matthew Stafford to wide receiver Cooper Kupp, that not only converted a 3rd and 20 situation for the Rams, but gave Los Angeles their second touchdown of the game.

The big play begins with the protection up front. Tampa Bay brings just four after Stafford, but the fourth defender — outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett — is tasked with jamming tight end Tyler Higbee before letting him release into the route. As such, Stafford has a clean pocket and an opportunity to step up before releasing the throw:

At first blush, the play looked like a potential coverage bust in the secondary. But through a few different angles, we can see how the passing concept, the coverage and the eyes from the quarterback put stress on the defense.

Tampa Bay drops into a Cover 2 look on this play, while the Rams send two vertical routes deep from the right side of the field. Kupp releases vertically towards the right boundary, while Van Jefferson splits the pair of two deep safeties.

As you can see from this depiction of the play, this route concept — and coverage — puts stress on safety Mike Edwards, who is aligned to that side of the field. In this coverage as a half-field safety, when both the inside and the outside receiver release vertically, he tries to split the difference between the two, breaking when the quarterback makes his decision and throw:

Here is where Stafford comes in.

As you can see from “the dots,” Edwards midpoints between Jefferson and Kupp, but then breaks towards the middle of the field and Jefferson’s safety-splitter. Instead, Stafford throws to the outside. As you can see from this angle, Stafford moves Edwards to the route in the middle of the field with his eyes, then flashes them late to the outside to pick up Kupp deep along the sideline:

Stafford starts with his field of vision to the left, trying to sell Edwards on the route in the middle of the field. Only late in the play does the QB flash his eyes to the right, and while Edwards tries to recover, he cannot prevent the catch.

Then, compounding matters, Kupp makes him miss in the open field, and the Rams are in the end zone.

This play ended up being the perfect storm for the Buccaneers. The coverage concept when matched up with this route concept put the safety in a bind, and without the ability to get pressure on the quarterback — due in part to the four-man rush with one of the defenders getting a late start — Stafford had time to both use his eyes and let the concept develop.

How DeMeco Ryans and the San Francisco 49ers defended Davante Adams

The San Francisco 49ers defense under DeMeco Ryans was fantastic Saturday night. One piece to the puzzle is how they approached Davante Adams.

The San Francisco 49ers are headed to the NFC Championship game on the heels of a three-point win on the road against the Green Bay Packers. While their special teams units — and special teams coach Richard Hightower — are soaking in some well-deserved praise this morning, there is another coach also earning his share of plaudits.

Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans.

The Packers finished the regular season with one of the best offenses in the league, ranking second in Football Outsiders’ Total Offense DVOA behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They also ranked second in Passing DVOA (again behind Tom Brady and the Buccaneers) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is considered a top candidate for the league’s Most Valuable Player award.

But on Saturday night, the Green Bay offense was held largely in check. After a touchdown on their opening drive had many wondering if it would be an early switch to Netflix, Rodgers and the Packers did not see the end zone again, and managed just one more score, a Mason Crosby field goal in the fourth quarter. A Crosby field goal attempt was blocked prior to halftime, one of two huge special teams plays from the 49ers on the night.

In the coming days, much will be written about the job Ryans and the San Francisco defense did limiting the Packers to just ten points, but today let us focus on just one small part: How the 49ers accounted for Devante Adams. Rodgers targeted his favorite receiver 11 times in the game, and Adams caught nine passes Saturday night for 90 yards. But he was held out of the end zone along with the rest of the Green Bay offense.

How did Ryans and San Francisco look to contain Adams and take away Rodgers’ favorite target? Through a combination of coverage looks which either forced the quarterback to look elsewhere, or led to Rodgers pulling the football down and fighting for his life in the pocket.

San Francisco special teams deliver two huge plays for the 49ers

Jordan Willis, Jimmie Ward and Talanoa Hufanga have delivered a pair of critical special teams plays for the 49ers.

Offense, defense and special teams.

Good teams find ways to make plays in all three phases of the game, and for the San Francisco 49ers on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, special teams are coming through in a huge way as the visitors try and upset the Green Bay Packers.

The first big special teams play came right before halftime. After Jimmy Garoppolo threw an interception near the end zone, Aaron Rodgers put the Packers in position for points before the halftime break. A Nick Bosa sack forced the Packers to settle for the field goal attempt, and that is when safety Jimmie Ward delivered the first big moment:

Still, the home team maintained their lead into the fourth quarter, using this critical stop of the 49ers offense on a short fourth down attempt to help preserve their lead:

This play was very similar to a short-yardage conversion earlier in the game, that saw the 49ers run to the edge on a toss play behind left tackle Trent Williams, who was sent in motion on the play as a lead blocker. On this snap, Garoppolo hands the football off, and while the right edge looks to be secured behind Williams, the running back is stuffed and the Packers defense kept the home team in front.

However, Rodgers and the Green Bay offenses stalled on their ensuing possession, and a third-down sack of the quarterback brought the Packers punt team onto the field.

Enter Talanoa Hufanga and the San Francisco punt block team:

Jordan Willis got to the spot to block the punt, and Hufanga returned it to knot the game at ten. As Joe Buck pointed out on the call from the broadcast booth, the Packers special teams have been brutal this season. According to Football Outsiders, the Green Bay special teams units turned in a DVOA of just -5.2% this season, placing them dead last in the league.

Compounding matters for the Packers, Green Bay was forced to punt on their subsequent possession, and the 49ers offense has a chance to win the game with under three minutes to go.

For Ryan Tannehill, a winter of discontent awaits

Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans are left to ponder what could have been in the wake of the quarterback’s three-interception performance.

To win playoff games in the National Football League, one of the first things you need to do is avoid turnovers.

That is something the Tennessee Titans and quarterback Ryan Tannehill failed to do on Saturday, and as a result they will be watching Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship game from the comforts of their own homes.

Tannehill completed 15 of 24 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown, along with three critical interceptions, as the Titans fell 19-16 on the game’s final play to the Bengals.

The first interception came on the very first play from scrimmage. The Titans, perhaps hoping to capitalize on the return of Derrick Henry, tried to get the passing game going with a hard play-action fake between Tannehill and Henry, before the quarterback looked to target the middle of the field.

Safety Jesse Bates III was waiting:

Tannehill’s second interception did not come until the second half, but it came at a most inopportune moment. After a Joe Mixon touchdown run gave the Bengals a ten-point lead, the Titans were in striking distance of a touchdown of their own, thanks to a tough run from D’Onta Foreman. But in the blink of an eye, the Bengals had the football back:

The Titans have a run/pass option called on the play, with Tannehill either handing the football off on a split-zone design or throwing the bubble screen to the outside. Cincinnati shows a six-man front with seven defenders in the box, and Mike Hilton is on the edge outside the right tackle.

Tannehill looks at the numbers up front, as well as the single coverage on the outside, and decides that the bubble screen is the best option. But Hilton works himself into the throwing lane. Watch the play again and see how the defensive back bends his path and gets upfield when he notices that Tannehill is pulling the football. That read and adjustment puts him in position to deflect the pass, and he finished the play by catching his own tip for the turnover.

Still, the Titans defense would stiffen, and the home team would eventually tie the game on this masterful connection from Tannehill to A.J. Brown:

This was set up by an interception from Amani Hooker, who’s fingertip interception erased Tannehill’s second big mistake of the game. As you can see from this end zone angle, the placement on the throw from Tannehill was pristine, as was the catch from Brown:

However, there was no bailout coming after Tannehill’s third big mistake.

With less than 30 seconds left, the Titans faced a third down on their own 40-yard line. They needed one big play to get into field goal range. A big play would come on the snap, but from the Cincinnati defense:

Tannehill tries to get this into Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who is running the deep curl route against Eli Apple. The Titans are hoping that the threat of a big play over the top will get Apple to give a big cushion, but the cornerback plays this tight on the receiver, and Apple gets a hand onto the football, tipping it into the air. Linebacker Logan Wilson was the man on the spot, securing the football and giving Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense a chance.

The offense delivered, as did rookie kicker Evan McPherson, and the Bengals are into the next round.

And the Titans are left to wonder what could have been.

In the buildup to this game, much was made about the notion that the Titans were the “worst number-one seed” in recent playoff history. There was certainly evidence to support that position, as Tennessee entered the divisional round as the team with the lowest DVOA remaining regardless of conference. The Titans’ ranked 20th coming into this game, behind even the Bengals who sit at 17th.

But that was not the only worrying sign for the Titans leading up to this contest. There was also the struggles that Tannehill endured this season. In the past few years, Tannehill has been among the most efficient passers in the league. For example, last year Tannehill’s adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.90 ranked fourth in the NFL. His 2019 mark of 8.52 led the league.

This season? Tannehill posted an ANY/A of 5.53, placing him 23rd in the NFL and behind passers such as Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, Teddy Bridgewater, Mac Jones and Daniel Jones, and just ahead of Davis Mills.

After the game, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel refused to put the blame on Tannehill, or on “any one person:”

And while that may be the case, the truth is that this season, the Titans’ passing game was not what it was in year’s past. Tannehill’s struggles showed up in a few different areas. First was on play-action, where some of the explosiveness seemed lost from a year ago. Last year on play-action throws, Tannehill posted an ANY/A of 9.3 according to Sports Info Solutions, which was seventh-best in the league.

This year? That number dropped to 7.5, 19th-best in the league.

Sure, some will point to the Derrick Henry injury as a reason while, and there might be something to that, Tannehill is the one throwing the football.

There was also this. During the 2021 campaign Tannehill struggled to hit on throws deeper downfield. His adjusted completion percentage of 36.0% on throws 20+ yards downfield was the sixth-worst in the lead, as charted by Pro Football Focus. Now granted, that is not the area where Tannehill targets most often, but the vertical element of the Tennessee offense was lacking this season.

That might be an area they look to address this off-season.

But now, they get to watch the rest of the post-season from home. And wonder about what could have been.