Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

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The Buffalo Bills (4-2) visit the New England Patriots (1-5) on Sunday. Kick from Gillette Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bills vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Bills skidded past the Giants 14-9 last week on Sunday Night Football while failing to cover as 15-point home favorites. QB Josh Allen went 19 of 30 for 169 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. His top receiver was WR Stefon Diggs who hauled in 10 receptions for 100 yards while being targeted 16 times. No other Bills receiver had more than 2 receptions and only 2 other receivers had more than a single target.

Last week, the Patriots fell 21-17 to the Raiders while failing to cover as 3-point road underdogs. QB Mac Jones went 24 of 33 for 200 yards and an interception in the loss. Both New England TDs came on the ground with RB Rhamondre Stevenson and RB Ezekiel Elliot each finding the endzone.

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Bills at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:58 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bills -375 (bet $375 to win $100) | Patriots +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills -7.5 (-110) | Patriots +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 40 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bills at Patriots key injuries

Bills

CB Kaiir Elam (ankle) questionable
RB Damien Harris (concussion) out
DT Ed Oliver (toe) out

Patriots

C David Andrews (ankle) available
T Trent Brown (chest) available
S Kyle Dugger (foot) questionable
DT Davon Godchaux (ankle) questionable
TE Hunter Henry (ankle) questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (knee) questionable
G Mike Onwenu (ankle) questionable
T Riley Reiff (knee) out
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) questionable
G Cole Strange (knee) questionable
LB Josh Uche (knee, foot) out

Bills at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 27, Patriots 10

Moneyline

PASS.

The Bills are so much better than the Patriots that the outcome of the game shouldn’t be a consideration. However, at -375, the Bills aren’t worth a play. Don’t put them in your moneyline parlays either.

Against the spread

BET BILLS -7.5 (-110).

The Bills have been favored in all 6 games so far this season, and they are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) when a double-digit favorite. But, when they are a favorite of 3-9.5, they are 3-1 ATS. The Bills offense scored 38, 37, and 48 in back-to-back weeks before going for 20 in Week 5 and 14 in Week 6. This offense should bounce back.

The opposite can be said of the Pats, who have scored 20 points over the last 3 weeks. There’s no reason to have confidence they can get going here. They are 1-5 ATS and 0-4 ATS as an underdog.

Back BILLS -7.5 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 40 (-110).

The Pats have gone Under in 5 straight games and have scored more than 17 just once this season. They have gone Under in 2 games in which they allowed 34 or more points, so even if the Bills offense bounces back, the total may not top 40.

The Bills are 2-4 O/U and have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 games. They have had a total of Under 45 or lower in 3 games, all of which went Under. Take UNDER 40 (-110).

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