The Buffalo Bills (8-6) and New England Patriots (9-5) meet in a crucial AFC East showdown Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (on CBS). Below, we look at the Bills vs. Patriots odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The Patriots lead the Bills by one game atop the division. New England took the first head-to-head meeting of the season 14-10 as a 3-point road underdog in Week 13.
In gusty winds, New England QB Mac Jones only attempted 3 passes, completing 2 for 19 yards, and the defense held the Bills to a season-low 230 offensive yards.
RB Damien Harris finished with 111 rushing yards, including a 64-yard touchdown, as the Pats outrushed the host Bills 222 to 99.
The Bills had a chance to take the lead late when they faced 1st-and-10 at the Patriots’ 14-yard line with 2:30 to go, but a 1-yard run followed by three incomplete passes sealed the New England victory.
Also see: All Week 16 odds and lines
Bills at Patriots odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:54 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Bills -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Patriots -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills +0.5 (-105) | Patriots -0.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Bills at Patriots key injuries
Bills
- None
Patriots
- WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) out
- WR Rhamondre Stevenson (illness) out
- C David Andrews (shoulder) questionable
- DT Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
- LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (ribs, ankle) questionable
- RB Brandon Bolden (knee) questionable
- K Nick Folk (knee) questionable
- RB Damien Harris (hamstring) questionable
- WR N’Keal Harry (hip) questionable
- DB Adrian Phillips (knee) questionable
Let’s Make This Interesting
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Bills at Patriots odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Patriots 30, Bills 24
Money line
PASS and just focus on the spread as they’re the exact same price.
New England is 3-4 straight-up (SU) at home and 3-2 as a home favorite, while Buffalo is 4-3 SU on the road and 1-1 as a road underdog.
Plus, Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 2-4 in his career vs. the Pats.
Against the spread
NEW ENGLAND -0.5 (-115) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Patriots had not only won seven in a row, they covered seven in a row until a 27-17 loss at the Indianapolis Colts last week in a Saturday matchup.
They are 4-3 ATS at home this season, including 3-0 ATS in their last three at Gillette Stadium. New England is also 5-0 in its last five as a favorite.
The Bills, who snapped a two-game skid with a 31-14 home victory vs. the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, are 2-3 SU/ATS in their last five games.
They have been inconsistent against the spread. They are 4-3 ATS on the road and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
Over/Under
OVER 43.5 (-110) is the way to go.
Don’t expect a game like the last Bills-Pats meeting when New England only threw the ball 3 times. That was in extremely windy conditions.
The O/U is 7-0 in Buffalo’s last seven games as an underdog, including 5-0 in its last five as a road dog.
Plus, the O/U is 4-0 in New England’s last four home games.
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| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| Since July 8 | 87-59 | 36-21 | +24.995 |
| 2021 NFL | 17-15 | 7-7 | -2.009 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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