The 2020 AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (11-3) visit the New England Patriots (6-8) in the Week 16 Monday Night Football game at 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we preview the Bills-Patriots betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Bills at Patriots: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Bills -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Patriots +270 (bet $100 to win $270)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bills -7 (-110) | Patriots +7 (-110)
- Over/Under: 46.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Bills at Patriots: Game notes
- The Bills, who enter on a 4-game win streak, clinched the AFC East title with a 48-19 rout at the Denver Broncos in Week 15. QB Josh Allen threw for 359 yards with 2 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores as Buffalo easily covered as a 6-point favorite. WR Stefon Diggs had a game-high 147 receiving yards (11 receptions) and WR Cole Beasley finished with 112 receiving yards (8 receptions).
- While Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) locked up the AFC’s top seed, the Bills can claim the No. 2 seed with a win vs. the Patriots. Buffalo is a half-game back of the AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) but own the tiebreaker thanks to a 26-15 home win vs. Pittsburgh in Week 14. The Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns (10-5) in Week 17 – with the Browns still fighting for one of the final playoff spots.
- The Patriots, who enter on a 2-game skid, were eliminated from playoff contention after losing 22-12 at the Miami Dolphins as 1.5-point favorites in Week 15. At 6-8, the Patriots will finish at .500 or worse for the first time since 2000, the season after they drafted QB Tom Brady. Their NFL-record of 11 consecutive postseason appearances will come to an end, and they also fell one season shy of matching the Dallas Cowboys’ NFL record of 20 consecutive winning seasons.
- Buffalo took the season’s first meeting vs. New England with a 24-21 Week 8 home victory, failing to cover as a 4-point favorite. The Patriots had a chance to tie or take the lead in the final minute, but QB Cam Newton fumbled and the Bills recovered at the Buffalo 13-yard line with 31 seconds left to seal it. Neither starting QB, Newton and Buffalo’s Josh Allen, threw a touchdown, but both had 1 rushing TD apiece as the Bills snapped a 7-game skid in the series vs. the Pats.
Betting stats:
- ATS: Bills 9-5 | Patriots 6-8
- O/U: Bills 9-4-1 | Patriots 4-10
Bills at Patriots: Key injuries
Bills
- No major injuries
Patriots
- C David Andrews (calf) questionable
- LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (shoulder) questionable
- DT Adam Butler (shoulder) questionable
- DT Byron Cowart (back) questionable
- OL Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle) questionable
- PK Nick Folk (back) questionable
- DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder) questionable
- RB Damien Harris (ankle) questionable
- OL Justin Herron (ankle) questionable
- CB J.C. Jackson (knee) questionable
- LB Anfernee Jennings (shoulder) questionable
- CB Jonathan Jones (neck) questionable
- OL Shaq Mason (calf) questionable
- DE John Simon (hamstring) questionable
Bills at Patriots: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bills 28, Patriots 17
Money line (?)
PASS. The Bills will take this one, but their -350 price isn’t worth the risk.
Against the spread (?)
BUFFALO -7 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. The Bills are playing for the AFC’s second seed. The Patriots are out of the playoff race and have numerous injuries. If the line climbs above 7, this becomes a 1-unit play.
Over/Under (?)
Back the UNDER 46.5 (-110). The Patriots average 20.6 points per game to rank 27th in the league. Plus, their passing game ranks 30th at 185.4 yards per game. Unless the Bills put up 30 points, this should finish Under.
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Buffalo at New England: 3 key matchups (Bills Wire)
- 9 burning questions for MNF tilt (Patriots Wire)
| Johnny’s 2020 NFL record / Strongest plays | 25-25-1 / 11-11-1 |
| 2019 NFL record / Strongest plays | 17-10-1 / 7-4 |
| 2020 overall record (all sports) | 173-145-3 |
| Strongest plays (all sports) | 85-59-1 |
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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