The biggest thing to remember about the bubble — in this or any other season — is that it is a study in moving parts. Sure, the Wisconsin Badgers might have 10 losses with two or three more losses being likely before Selection Sunday. In some years, that would be an NIT scenario… but this isn’t “some years.” This is THIS YEAR. It’s different from other years.
This year, the Big Ten might get 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament and yet not have a single team seeded higher than No. 3. This year, Rutgers and Penn State are on track to make the NCAA Tournament, while North Carolina might not even make the NIT. This year, the ACC is looking at four bids, five at most. This year, the Pac-12 might have only three bids.
It is a very particular landscape in 2020… just as it was in 2019 and 2018. Weird things happen. In 2018, five teams with losing conference records made the NCAA Tournament: Alabama, Syracuse, Arizona State, Texas, and Oklahoma. In most years, that scenario would not have occurred, but in 2018 it did. Meanwhile, in 2018, a USC team which finished second in the Pac-12 in the regular season and made the Pac-12 Tournament final did not get in. Arizona State, at 8-10 in the league, got in over 12-6 USC (and finished worse than the Trojans in the Pac-12 Tournament) because of high-end wins over Kansas and Xavier in non-conference play.
That was crazy. How can you finish four games better than an opponent in the conference standings and not make the Big Dance while the other team does? It’s a 30-game (season-long) comparison, not just a matter of conference play. Every season is its own creature. Having 10 losses is not a uniquely disqualifying thing.
So, with that as prelude, let’s simply note that the larger national bubble is delivering good results to Wisconsin. If dozens of bubble teams in worse shape than UW are going to climb over the Badgers in the coming weeks, it sure isn’t happening right now.
Florida had a bad week. Mississippi State didn’t get a high-quality win at Kentucky. Stanford and USC both went 0-2 on the road in the Pac-12. Providence lost to Xavier. Virginia Tech’s bubble candidacy is pretty much done after a tailspin. Texas and TCU are plummeting out of the bubble picture in the Big 12. Tulsa, Memphis, and Cincinnati all picked up bad bubble losses in the AAC. Minnesota losing to Penn State puts the Gophers well below Wisconsin in any bubble pecking order.
In the prominent conferences, teams are moving down on the bubble (or below the bubble) rather than up, for the most part. There are exceptions. Oklahoma’s win over West Virginia was an enormous result for the Sooners, but that’s an exception which proves the rule. Baylor and Kansas thumping the Big 12 means those bubble teams in the middle of the league aren’t getting the high-value wins which would improve their profiles. A similar dynamic is occurring in the ACC, where Louisville and Duke aren’t losing the games mid-tier teams need to improve their bubble resumes.
Wisconsin isn’t an NCAA lock, but results across the country keep helping the Badgers. This isn’t a normal year, but it’s not a year in which Wisconsin is likely to miss the Big Dance.
The Badgers would really have to screw this thing up with a three-game losing streak. Unless that happens, UW should hear its name called on Selection Sunday.