Expectations for the Cougars in 2023 and beyond
Houston’s expectations will likely be what the program has been used to over the history of the program. There will be some highly successful years in which the program can win 10+ games and compete for a conference title. However, there will also be periods where the Cougars will likely find themselves fighting to be in the middle of the pack in the Big 12.
It’s a program that, for the most part, has had quality success. Since 2000, the program has posted 14 winning seasons. Out of those 14 winning seasons, four were 10+ win seasons, including in 2021 when the Cougars went 12-0, including 8-0 in the AAC. But it’s also a program that has thrived off weaker schedules.
None of the program’s 10+ win seasons since 2000 came with demanding schedules. According to College Football Reference’s strength of schedule (SOS) rating history, the Cougars had below-average schedules in terms of difficulty in each of their four 10+ win seasons since 2000. For reference, a 0.00 rating is an average strength of schedule.
| YEAR | RECORD | SOS |
| 2021 | 12-2 (7-1) | -3.26 |
| 2015 | 13-1 (7-1) | -3.04 |
| 2011 | 13-1 (8-0) | -4.63 |
| 2006 | 10-4 (7-1) | -2.89 |
Additionally, since 2000, Houston has only had five seasons in which they had a strength of schedule that was considered above average. Their best season in one of those five years was this past season at 8-5. A promising sign for a program that just entered a Power Five conference. Their strength of schedule last year had a rating of 0.80. In the other four seasons, the Cougars won four games or less, including in 2019 and 2020, when they went 4-9 and 3-5, respectively.
Now in the Big 12, Houston’s strength of schedule, even once Oklahoma and Texas depart for the SEC, will be much more difficult than what they grew accustomed to on a yearly basis. For example, ESPN ranks the Cougars’ 2023 schedule as the 44 most difficult in the country this season. For comparison, according to ESPN last season, their final strength of schedule was ranked 80 in the country.
The Cougars should be competitive this upcoming season, but the long-term sustainability of success for the program remains in question.
Having Dana Holgorsen leading the program into the Big 12 should help the program in that quest.
Before joining Houston in 2019, Holgorsen led West Virginia for eight seasons, including a pair of 10+ win seasons, and oversaw the program’s transition from the Big East to the Big 12.
That being said, will Hologorson be able to get the program to that next level? With their pair of ten-win seasons, the Mountaineers also struggled to meet expectations several times throughout his tenure. Will the Houston administration accept a similar fate now that they are part of the Big 12? Only time will tell, but Holgorsen and the Houston administration will hope the 52-year-old head coach has learned from his mistakes in Morgantown.