Bracketology: Latest tournament projections emphasize ‘must-win’ reality for Oregon Ducks

Oregon picked up a historic win over Colorado on Thursday. ESPN’s tourney projections show their March Madness hopes still hang in the balance, though.

Thursday night was certainly an eventful one for Dana Altman and the Oregon Ducks. Not only did they beat the Colorado Buffaloes in Boulder for the first time in school history — a venture that took 11 tries and 22,325 days to complete  (h/t to The Oregonian‘s James Crepea) — but they also picked up a valuable win in their quest to keep the 2022 NCAA Tournament hopes alive in Eugene.

At this point in the season, the Ducks enter every game with virtual “must-win” status hanging over their heads. With a 14-7 (7-3) record early in the month of February, they know that with another bad loss in the books, they could be eliminated from tournament discussion. After dropping one to the Buffaloes at home last week, the stakes were high on Thursday night when they went into Boulder, a place where they had never won before. Fortunately, led by Jacob Young and Will Richardson, the Ducks prevailed with a 66-51 victory.

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For another few days, the tournament hopes are alive and well.

That notion was supported by ESPN’s latest ‘Bracketology’ projection, where the Ducks currently hold the title of “Last Team In.” If the season were to end today, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi predicts that Oregon would be picked as a No. 12 seed, where they would play the San Diego State Aztecs in one of the first four games of the tournament. Fortunately for the Ducks, that game is predicted for now, at least, to be held in the Portland regional.

There is still a lot of basketball to be played, with 10 games coming in this month alone. Due to some rescheduling that happened because of COVID-postponements, the back-stretch of the schedule is going to be loaded, and the Ducks will have matchups on the road against the likes of No. 7 Arizona and Washington State while hosting the likes of No. 19 USC and No. 3 UCLA at Matthew Knight Arena in a stretch of three days. Then comes the Pac-12 tournament, where we all know that anything can happen.

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It will be a grueling stretch, but one that could see Oregon move up in the bracketology projections and find some safety in their seeding. Contrarily, a stumble or two could kill the Ducks’ postseason hopes altogether. As I said earlier, each game holds that “must-win” status at the moment, and Oregon will live with that pressure for the foreseeable future.

That future starts again on Saturday night with a road game against the Utah Utes. The Ducks blew out Utah at MKA a few weeks ago, but will now be facing the second game of their challenging mountain road trip, playing at elevation in Salt Lake City.

If they want to keep tournament hopes alive, they know what’s at stake.

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