The Boston Red Sox (24-20) and San Diego Padres (20-24) meet Friday to kick off a 3-game series. First pitch from Petco Park is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since 2019 when the Red Sox won the series 2-1
Boston won 12-3 Wednesday as -128 home favorites vs. Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox have now won back-to-back games after a 4-game losing streak. This game kicks off a 9-game road stretch for Boston.
San Diego lost 4-3 Wednesday as -268 home favorites vs. Kansas City Royals. The Padres have now lost back-to-back games and are only 1-4 in their last 5 games overall. The Padres have an 11-13 home record and are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
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Red Sox at Padres projected starters
LHP James Paxton vs. LHP Blake Snell
Paxton (0-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 16.2 K/9 in 5 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K, in an 8-6 home loss Friday vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Career vs. San Diego: 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 13 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 19 K in 3 starts
Snell (1-5, 4.61 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 41 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K, in a 4-2 road loss Friday vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Career vs. Boston: 7-3 with a 2.59 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 54 H, 1 HR, 27 BB, 65 K in 12 starts
Red Sox at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Red Sox at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 3, Padres 1
Moneyline
LEAN RED SOX (+125).
The Red Sox are only 1-5 in their last 6 inter-league games, but have won 2 straight and 3 of their last 5 road games. And for what it’s worth, the Red Sox are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Boston at -160 is a little heavy here if you aren’t comfortable betting the Red Sox straight up to win. But the moneyline or O/U is the better value.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
For San Diego the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 opening games of a series and 8-0 in their last 8 inter-league games vs. teams with a winning record.
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