The ice-cold Los Angeles Angels (27-31) host the Boston Red Sox (30-27) Thursday at Angel Stadium for the finale of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston beat L.A. 1-0 Wednesday, handing the Angels their 14th straight loss. Angels OF Mike Trout missed the game with groin tightness after exiting the 2nd game of the series early.
Season series: The Red Sox lead 4-2 but the Angels have a plus-6 run differential.
Red Sox at Angels projected starters
RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani
Pivetta is 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 61 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-0, Saturday at the Oakland Athletics with 7-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Angels: One start — 4-3 home win May 14 — with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
Ohtani is 3-4 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 6-1, last Thursday at the New York Yankees with 3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 vs. the Red Sox: One start — 8-0 win in Boston May 5 — with 7-scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 11 K.
Red Sox at Angels odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Red Sox +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Angels -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-205) | Angels -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Red Sox at Angels picks and predictions
Prediction
Angels 4, Red Sox 2
Money line
LEAN ANGELS (-125) only because the sharp side appears to be the Red Sox (+102) since there’s a line freeze in the betting market.
Most of the action is on L.A. with Ohtani on the bump but the line hasn’t budged off the opener, according to Pregame.com.
However, the Angels need Ohtani to stop the bleeding and he has better advanced pitching numbers than Pivetta both on the year and vs. Tuesday’s opponent.
Ohtani is 2-1 in 3 career starts against Boston with a 2.81 ERA. He grades in the 86th percentile or better in expected ERA (xERA), exit velocity (EV) and barrel rate, according to Statcast.
Ohtani also has a .246/.293/.387 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 28.0 K% and 85.9 mph EV in 50 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Red Sox batters.
Pivetta grades in the 40th percentile or worse in xERA, EV, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and chase rate this year. He has a .253/.323/.483 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 21.4 K% and 90.8 mph in 28 PA vs. current Angels hitters.
BET a half-unit on the ANGELS (-125), if at all.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not confident enough in the Angels -1.5 (+165) as they are just 10-14 RL as home favorites while the Red Sox are 13-6 RL as road underdogs.
PASS.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+105).
More than 90% of the bets placed at Tipico Sportsbook are on the Over 7.5 and there’s value in fading a lopsided market since Red Sox-Angels games are 3-8-2 O/U in their last 13 meetings.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+105) because the Red Sox-Angels total should be raised to 8 if the public keeps betting the Over so we might get a better number by waiting closer to the first pitch.
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