The Boston Red Sox (89-69) and Baltimore Orioles (51-107) conclude a three-game series Thursday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta (9-7, 4.52 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 149 1/3 IP.
- Has a 3.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 76 IP through 14 starts on the road.
- 3-0 with a 4.15 ERA through four starts against Baltimore. Two outings back he took a no-decision after giving up 3 earned runs over 3 2/3 innings at home against the Orioles.
Orioles LHP Alexander Wells (1-3, 7.61 ERA) makes his eighth start in his 11th game. He has a 1.75 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 36 2/3 IP.
- Allowed 15 earned runs across 18 innings through four September starts; allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings Sept. 19 at Boston.
- Has been a little hurt by a .328 BABIP and 66.2% LOB rate but still boasts a 7.02 xERA and 6.08 xFIP.
Red Sox at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Orioles +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -2.5 (-103) | Orioles +2.5 (-117)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Boston 8, Baltimore 3
Money line (ML)
The Red Sox have taken 13 of 18 meetings with the Orioles as they conclude the season series Thursday. Three of Baltimore’s five victories came in a series sweep to open the season.
There’s no reason to anticipate a different outcome Thursday than we’ve seen from these clubs all season. The Red Sox are far superior at the plate and have the better pitching staff. This is a heavy line but you can BET the RED SOX (-240).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Orioles would have covered a 2.5 run spread in just three of Boston’s 13 victories over them this season – that’s how dominant the Red Sox have been against their division rival.
The Red Sox got their bats going a bit Wednesday and will be coming for the Orioles’ rookie hurler – one they dinged for 5 runs over 5 innings not even two weeks ago. We also get Pivetta on the road where he has been more successful this season.
Boston will be highly motivated to win Thursday’s game comfortably as it tries to remain dialed into the AL Wild Card race. BACK the RED SOX -2.5 (-103).
Over/Under (O/U)
This is a huge number for a game not at Coors Field in Denver, but there’s still a chance it gets there. The Red Sox should be in a position to put up some runs against Wells – likely enough that the Orioles only need to plate 3 or 4 of their own to push this over.
Pivetta has been better on the road than at home but he hasn’t held Baltimore scoreless in any of his four prior meetings this season.
Don’t go too heavy because this is a huge one, but I’m back the OVER 10.5 (+100).
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