The Miami Heat (6-1) host the Boston Celtics (3-5) Thursday at the FTX Arena with tip-off scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Boston snapped a three-game losing skid with a 92-79 victory over the Orlando Magic Wednesday as a 7-point road favorite. The Celtics rank 24th in both net rating and effective field goal shooting (eFG%), and are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and 4-4 Over/Under (O/U).
Miami has the highest net rating in the Association and is riding a five-game win streak. Three of the Heat’s last four wins have come on the road against playoff teams from last season. Miami is 6-1 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
The Heat won and covered in two of their three regular-season meetings with the Celtics last year. Also, Miami upset Boston in the 2019-20 Eastern Conference Finals in the Orlando bubble.
Celtics at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:33 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Celtics +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Heat -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +6.5 (-107) | Heat -6.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Celtics at Heat key injuries
Celtics
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Heat
- SG Max Strus (knee) out
Celtics at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 114, Celtics 107
Money line
PASS because Miami is the right side in this game but the Heat (-300) are unplayable outright and I don’t parlay NBA regular-season favorites.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-115) because a vast majority of the market is betting Miami and I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting.
The Heat should cash tickets for backers because guard Kyle Lowry has been a perfect offseason addition thus far and guard Tyler Herro is playing even better than he did in the Orlando bubble two seasons ago.
Herro could make a case for the Sixth Man of the Year and the Most Improved Player awards through the first couple weeks of the season. He’s averaging 22.4 points per game (PPG) off the bench on 55.1% eFG%.
Miami’s bench averages the most PPG in the league (47.0) with the best +/-. On the other hand, Boston lacks depth, averaging just the fifth-fewest bench PPG (28.0) and the second-worst +/- in the NBA.
There’s a toughness and poise that Lowry brings to the table for Miami. He keeps the offense organized and his defensive prowess fits into Heat culture.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 214.5 (-112) for a tiny wager if at all because there’s been a smidge of “reverse line movement” toward the Under.
Nearly 60% of the action is on the Over, but the total has been lowered from the 215-point opener according to pregame.com
However, Miami’s offense lit up Boston in their final two meetings last season and the Celtics have played bad 3-point defense to start the year.
The Heat have the fourth-highest offensive FT/FGA rate, the Celtics have the worst defensive FT/FGA rate and Miami will get easy putbacks against a Boston team that’s 20th in defensive rebounding rate.
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