The Boston Celtics meet the Golden State Warriors Monday for a pivotal Game 5 of the NBA Finals at the Chase Center. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (ABC) and the best-of-7 series is tied 2-2. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Warriors Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State ground out a 107-97 Game 4 victory Friday in Boston thanks to an all-time performance from Steph Curry, who scored a series-high 43 points on 53.8% shooting (7-for-14 from 3) with 10 rebounds and 4 assists. The Warriors dominated the glass, outrebounding the Celtics 55-42.
Boston All-Star wing Jayson Tatum was extremely passive in the 2nd half of Game 4 and had the worst net rating (minus-22) of the Celtics’ starting 5.
Each team is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) in this series but Boston is winning 3 of the 4 factors and the total is 2-2 Over/Under (O/U).
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NBA Finals Game 5 betting breakdown
Celtics at Warriors odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:18 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Celtics +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Warriors -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Celtics +4.5 (-120) | Warriors -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Also see: Tournament
Celtics at Warriors key injuries
Warriors
- None
Celtics
- C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable
[tipico]
Celtics at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 111, Celtics 102
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Warriors (-170) but will opt for Golden State’s cheaper spread instead.
The Warriors are 39-10 straight up (SU) as home favorites with a plus-10.8 margin of victory and 16-6 SU on 2-3 days of rest with a plus-7.3 margin of victory. The Celtics (+135) are 10-17 SU as road underdogs and 14-8 SU on 2-3 days of rest.
Golden State has the best player in this series and generates cleaner looks on offense. Boston’s lack of a true point guard and ball-handler leads to squandered possessions via turnovers or the Celtics settling for long, contested 2-pointers.
Warriors All-Star SF Andrew Wiggins is locking up Tatum. Wiggins has been the best 2-way player in the Finals. He grabbed a career-best 16 rebounds in Game 4 and is on Tatum like glue. Tatum is shooting just 33.3% from the field when guarded by Wiggins.
However, the Warriors (-170) is just a little out of my price range.
PASS.
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Against the spread
Buy a full-point and BET WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) ALTERNATE LINE because every point counts in this matchup. Golden State is only a plus-0.3 net rating in the Finals.
If this game is tight down the stretch, the Warriors have a significant edge and could end up winning Game 5 by margin.
Since the 1st round, the Celtics are 3-5 SU in “clutch” time with a minus-45.6 net rating, 28.8% effective field goal rate (eFG%) and 0.76 assist-to-turnover rate (AST/TO).
The Warriors are 6-3 SU in the “clutch” with a plus-21.4 net rating, 59.5% eFG% and 2.13 AST/TO rate. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.
The bottom line is Golden State’s offense is a lot crisper in winning time because of continuity and championship know-how.
Another wager to consider is WARRIORS (-122) TO WIN THE 3RD QUARTER.
One of the most consistent things in sports since the Warriors hired Steve Kerr as coach is Golden State smashing opponents in the 3rd quarter.
In these playoffs, the Warriors are 13-7 ATS in the 3rd quarter with a plus-21.02% return on investment (ROI) while the Celtics are 11-11 ATS with a minus-3.23% ROI. Golden State has a plus-12.3 margin of victory in the 3rd quarter of these Finals alone.
BET the WARRIORS -3.5 (-122) ALTERNATE LINE and TO WIN THE 3RD QUARTER (-122).
Over/Under
PASS.
This is a sharp total and my numbers align too closely with the market’s projected score. It’s hard to pick a side on the total because playoff series slow down as they continue, but both teams have a lot of firepower and chuck a lot of 3-pointers.
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