After an impressive 11-5 campaign last season that ended with a divisional round playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cleveland Browns entered 2021 with as much hype as they’ve had in decades.
But six weeks into the season and several big injuries later, that excitement is beginning to die down. News that quarterback Baker Mayfield will miss Thursday’s game against the Denver Broncos due to a torn labrum is just the latest blow to a team that, despite a 3-3 record, still holds the fourth shortest odds on Tipico Sportsbook to win the AFC at +900.
In addition to Mayfield, Cleveland is also dealing with injuries to both members of its dynamic running back tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Hunt was hurt in Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals, the team’s second in a row after having won the previous three straight. But despite the health concerns of an offense that has also been without wide receiver Jarvis Landry and could be without Odell Beckham Jr., again, it’s the defense that may be Cleveland’s biggest letdown.
In order for the Browns to live up to expectations, they need to win some of the bigger matchups on their schedule. But not only are they 0-3 in games against teams that also have top-five odds to win their conferences, the Browns have allowed an average of 39.0 points in those games — against the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals.
In other games, the Browns are 3-0 while giving up just 11.3 points per game. It’s likely why they’re still 1.5-point favorites Thursday against an average Denver team, despite Case Keenum being named starting QB. The Browns’ inconsistencies have created a weird stat dynamic where they rank second in the NFL in total yards allowed per game, but 24th in points allowed. Teams have passed for 14 touchdowns against them, tied for third-most allowed in the NFL.
It’s certainly not a perfect formula for success, but the Browns may have been able to ride it to at least a Wild Card playoff berth if not for the injuries that are now piling up. As they continue to lose players, beating just the bad teams becomes more of a challenge. Both of their starting offensive tackles are questionable to play Thursday, adding to the appeal of the Broncos’ +102 moneyline.
None of Cleveland’s injuries are expected to be season-ending, so there’s always a chance they get healthy and right the ship before it’s too late, which means their conference odds, +330 AFC North division odds (second best) and +2000 Super Bowl winner odds (tied 9th best) still holds some value. With each passing game, however, it’s becoming harder to trust that the Browns cover spreads (3-3 against the spread this season), let alone win outright.