The No. 2 Baylor Bears (11-0 overall, 4-0 Big 12) head to Lubbock, Texas, for a Big 12 showdown with the No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-3, 4-2) Saturday at United Supermarkets Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Baylor-Texas Tech college basketball betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Baylor at Texas Tech: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:02 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Baylor -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Texas Tech +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Baylor -4.5 (-115) | Texas Tech +4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 138.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Baylor at Texas Tech: Three things to know
- Baylor has been one of the best bets in college basketball thus far: The Bears have a 9-2 ATS record with a plus-6.1-point ATS margin. In their last game, the Bears were down a point at halftime at TCU before blowing the Horned Frogs out 40-21 in the second half of a 67-49 victory Jan. 9.
- Texas Tech is riding high coming out of its sensational 79-77 road win against No. 4 Texas Wednesday as a 1-point underdog. Red Raiders junior transfer SG Mac McClung hit a game-winner with 3 seconds remaining as part of his game-high 22 points to beat the Longhorns. Prior to winning its last two games ATS, Texas Tech failed to cover in seven straight and are just 6-8 ATS on the season.
- The Bears beat the Red Raiders in both meetings last season but only covered in one, which was a 57-52 victory as 3.5-point road underdogs Jan. 7, 2020.
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Baylor at Texas Tech: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 74, Texas Tech 66
Money line (ML)
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. Baylor (-225) is the right side here, but it’s bad ROI to lay more than two times your profit on a favorite that’s playing a ranked, conference rival.
Against the spread (ATS)
If there is a weakness in Baylor’s game, I have yet to find it. The Bears are third in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating, and while the Red Raiders are adept at getting to the foul line, their offense is pretty average.
In fact, Texas Tech is ranked 202nd in effective field-goal percentage and Baylor is eighth in eFG%. Texas Tech’s defense is its calling card, but Baylor’s offense is too dialed in at the moment.
GIMME BAYLOR -4.5 (-115) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
What gives me confidence in the OVER 138.5 (-110) is because this is the highest projected total for a Baylor-Texas Tech meeting since 2017 despite Baylor’s defensive tenacity and Texas Tech’s offensive mediocrity.
Three of the previous four Baylor-Texas Tech games have gone Over the total and BetMGM is trying to put this one high so bettors take the Under. I like the Over as much as the Baylor side in this game.
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