The Baltimore Orioles (44-27) and Tampa Bay Rays (51-24) open up a 2-game set Tuesday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 2-1
The Orioles have won 7 of 10 games to pull within 5 games of the AL East-leading Rays. That seemed like an impossible task a few weeks ago after the start Tampa had to open the season. The O’s have cooled a bit over their last 5 outings though, as the Chicago Cubs took 2 of 3 over the weekend. Baltimore has been very good on the road and within the division at 22-14 and 13-8, respectively.
Tampa dropped 2 of 3 contests at the San Diego Padres over the weekend. Things have tightened up in the division as the Rays have gone 5-5 over their last 10 and 12-8 over their last 20. They’re tough at home though, where they’ve gone 31-7.
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Orioles at Rays projected starters
RHP Kyle Bradish vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow
Bradish (2-3, 3.90 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and a 7.8 K/9 across 60 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K Wednesday against the Toronto Blue Jays
- 2 career starts vs. Rays: 0-1, 10.24 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 8 K in 9 2/3 IP
Glasnow (2-0, 3.43 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 21 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 6 K Wednesday against Oakland Athletics
- Last 5 starts vs. Orioles: 4-0, 2.65 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 39 K in 30 2/3 IP
Orioles at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Rays -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Orioles 4
Moneyline
Tampa is great at home, but Baltimore is great on the road. And there’s no way we’re going with the -175 ML. Glasnow’s numbers against Baltimore are awesome, but he hasn’t faced them since 2020, and this is a much different team. PASS on the ML.
One prop that I want to key in on involves Bradish. He has given up 5+ ER in both career starts against Tampa and has not fanned 6 in either. He has fanned 6 just once in his last 6 starts overall. Tampa is 14th at 8.48 K’s/game. KYLE BRADISH UNDER 5.5 K’S (-135) seems like a win.
Run line/Against the spread
If Bradish can keep the crooked numbers to a minimum, I think the Orioles have a shot to take this one. Baltimore has a better pen with the 6th-ranked 3.53 ERA vs. Tampa’s 15th-ranked 3.94 ERA.
Take the ORIOLES +1.5 (-140).
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Over/Under
The Over is just 4-6 in the last 10 between the teams, but it went 3-1 when the total was less than 8. The Over is 3-0-1 for Baltimore in the last 4 road games against a righty.
The Over has cashed in Tampa’s last 5 against teams with a .600 record or better and is 5-1 in the last 6 after an off-day as well.
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-120).
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