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The Baltimore Orioles (39-22) take on the Tampa Bay Rays (31-31) Friday in the opener of a 4-game set at Tropicana Field at 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 2-1
The Orioles dropped the last 2 against the Toronto Blue Jays to split a 4-game set. They’re 6-4 in their last 10 and trail the New York Yankees by 4½ games in the AL East. SS Gunnar Henderson is tied for 2nd with 19 homers in the AL and is a prime candidate for MVP thus far.
The Rays had Thursday off after winning their 3rd straight game with a 5-3 W over the Miami Marlins. They’re 13 back in the division and 2 back from a Wild Card spot. SS Jose Caballero has been a bright spot for them. He’s only hitting .261 but is tied for 2nd in baseball with 21 stolen bases.
Orioles at Rays projected starters
LHP Cole Irvin vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Irvin (5-2, 2.84 ERA) makes his 10th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 57 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-3 home loss Sunday against Rays
- 4 career starts vs. Tampa: 1-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 14 K in 24 2/3 IP
Civale (2-4, 5.37 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 62 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 3-1 loss May 31 at Orioles
- 4 career starts vs. O’s: 2-0, 5.48 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 17 K in 21 1/3 IP
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Orioles at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+155) | Rays +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
The Rays don’t do anything particularly well with a .236 BA (tied for 18th in MLB), 4.0 runs/game (23rd) and 4.30 ERA (24th). They’re also just 17-18 at home. Irvin has a 1.30 ERA over his last 7 starts, and while Civale has been better in his last 2 GS, he has not been effective all year.
Take the ORIOLES -105.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m not interested in either side of the RL. But I will take COLE IRVIN OVER 17.5 OUTS (-110). He has gone 6+ innings in all 4 of his career starts against Tampa, and he has gone 6+ in 4 of 6 starts overall.
Over/Under
The Over is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. Tampa is 5-5 O/U in its last 10, and the O’s are 6-3-1. Two of the 3 games in Baltimore, a hitters’ park, went Under this number a few days ago.
I’ll take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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