The Baltimore Orioles (74-46) play the finale of a 3-game series against the San Diego Padres (57-63) Wednesday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
The Orioles dropped the 2nd game of the series 10-3 Tuesday as they failed to capitalize on a 4-1 victory in the series opener Monday. Baltimore is 3-2 through the first 5 games of a 9-game road trip and leads the AL East by 3 games over the Tampa Bay Rays. The O’s have the best record in the American League and despite having a 3-game win streak snapped Tuesday have still won 11 of their last 16 games.
The Padres snapped their 3-game losing skid with Tuesday’s win. San Diego has lost 3 series in a row, has lost 7 of its last 9 games and trails the Miami Marlins by 5 1/2 games for the final NL Wild Card spot.
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Orioles at Padres projected starters
RHP Dean Kremer vs. LHP Blake Snell
Kremer (11-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 132 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-4 home win over Houston Astros Thursday
- The Orioles are 7-0 in his last 7 starts
Snell (9-8, 2.63 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 130 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 10-5 road win over Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
- The Padres are 4-0 in his last 4 starts
Orioles at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Orioles at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Padres 4
Moneyline
It’s hard to ignore Kremer’s 11-4 record, that Baltimore has gone 18-6 in his starts and that the Orioles have won his last 7 outings.
Baltimore’s 38 road wins are tied for the most in all of baseball and San Diego is only 31-29 at home. The Padres have lost 7 of their last 9 games overall and it seems odd that they’re favored.
BET ORIOLES (+145).
Run line/Against the spread
The Orioles are 74-46 ATS this season, the 2nd-best mark in MLB. They are 43-17 ATS as underdogs while the Padres are 43-49 ATS as favorites.
In 8 of the last 9 games the Orioles covered the spread as the underdog, they won outright.
PASS on the run line, as the much better deal is to take the plus odds on the moneyline.
However, 11 of the 18 wins Baltimore has with Kremer on the bump have been by 2 or more runs and 9 of their last 11 wins overall have been by 2 or more runs. It wouldn’t be a bad bet to sprinkle a little on an ALTERNATE SPREAD: ORIOLES -1.5 (+230).
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Over/Under
Nine of the Padres’ last 13 games have had 9 or more total runs while 7 of the Orioles’ last 11 have had 9 or more runs.
Four of Kremer’s last 5 starts have had 9 or more runs.
Snell’s last 2 outings have had double-digit runs.
BET OVER 8 (-110).
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