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The Baltimore Orioles (62-38) continue their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (53-47) Tuesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Baltimore leads 1-0
In Game 1 of their series Monday, the pitchers brought their A game. Orioles RHP Dean Kremer threw 7 innings and allowed 1 ER on 3 hits while Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez responded with 7 IP and 2 ER allowed with 8 K’s.
In the end Baltimore pulled off the 3-2 win thanks to LF Colton Cowser, who despite batting .128 hit the go-ahead double in the top of the 9th inning. The Phillies had 2 on with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th, but CF Johan Rojas grounded out to end the game.
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Orioles at Phillies projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Taijuan Walker
Gibson (9-6, 4.76 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 121 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 4-3 road win vs. Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 5-3, 4.23 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 34 ER) in 12 starts
- Career vs. Phillies: 0-0, 6.00 ERA (6 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start
Walker (11-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 107 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 home loss versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.
- 2023 home stats: 5-1, 2.76 ERA (49 IP, 15 ER) in 9 starts
- Career vs. Baltimore: 4-1, 2.45 ERA (44 IP, 12 ER) in 8 starts
Orioles at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Orioles at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Orioles 5
Moneyline
It’s tough to bet against this Baltimore team with their 32-18 road record, but there are a few reasons to pick the Phillies.
Orioles pitcher Gibson struggles against the National League. In 5 games he is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Phillies RHP Walker is the opposite, sporting a 5-1 record from his 7 starts with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Plus at home Walker has been impressive, allowing a .178 batting average and .314 slugging. Add that with Philadelphia’s 20-13 interleague record and I like the Phillies.
LEAN PHILLIES -120.
Run line/Against the spread
While I’m backing the Phillies to win, their stats against the spread are embarassing. At home the Phillies have the worst ATS record in MLB (14-32), covering in just 30% of those games. The Orioles are the exact opposite, having the best ATS record (37-13).
As a favorite Philadelphia also fails to cover more often than not (23-41) while Baltimore is 26-8 as a road underdog. Lastly, the Phillies have been favorites for 9 straight games (not counting Tuesday) and have won and covered in just 2 of them. Therefore AVOID this line.
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Over/Under
Philadelphia is one of the better Under teams, where at home they have a 24-17-5 Under record. Baltimore, on the other hand, likes the Over and has a 27-18-5 Over record.
That being said, the Phillies break this trend coming off a loss where they actually have a 53.5% Over rate (23-20-3). After Monday’s game gave us just 5 total runs, I see the bats showing up Tuesday.
LEAN OVER 9.5 (+100).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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