The Minnesota Twins (45-43) welcome the Baltimore Orioles (51-35) to Target Field Friday to open a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-1
The Orioles beat the New York Yankees 14-1 Thursday to earn a split of the 4-game series. They are 4-6 over their last 10 games, 25-17 on the road, and 4 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the lead in the AL East.
The Twins are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals, including a 5-0 victory Wednesday. Minnesota leads the AL Central and is 26-19 at home this season and 6-4 over its last 10 games.
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Orioles at Twins projected starters
LHP Cole Irvin vs. RHP Bailey Ober
Irvin (1-3, 6.32 ERA) makes his 8th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.69 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 31 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 K in a 2-1 home win vs. the Twins Sunday
- The Orioles are 4-3 in his starts this season
Ober (5-4, 2.70 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 76 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 1-0 home win at the Orioles Saturday
- The Twins are 8-5 in his starts this season
- Has given up more than 3 earned runs just once this year and has pitched 5 or more innings in each appearance
Orioles at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Twins -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Orioles at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Orioles 3
Moneyline
Minnesota is 25-15 as a home favorite this season and Ober is coming off arguably his best performance of the year. Baltimore is 13-13 as a road underdog.
While the Orioles have been one of the best road teams in the league and backing Ober to perform has been a consistent bet this season. The Twins are 8-5 with him on the mound and are 26-19 at home, both reasons to bet them here despite the juice.
Take TWINS (-155).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
With the last 2 games between these 2 teams ended with 1 run (a 2-1 Orioles win Sunday and a 1-0 Twins win Saturday), I’d prefer to take the side that’s at home with the better pitcher on the mound to straight-up win instead of playing with the run line odds.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
The last 3 games between these two teams, last weekend, ended 2-1, 0-1 and 1-8 with the Under cashing twice.
The Twins are 38-47-3 O/U on the season and have gone Under in 7 of their last 10 games. Minnesota is also 18-26 O/U following a win and 1-7 O/U in its last 8 games following a win.
While Baltimore is 44-36-6 O/U on the season, Ober had its number last week and has consistently performed well. Take the UNDER 8.5 (+100) here.
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