The Baltimore Orioles (35-44) and Minnesota Twins (45-36) finish their 3-game series Sunday at Target Field with 1st pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Twins lead 4-2.
Minnesota became the first AL team to have back-to-back walk-off losses followed by back-to-back walk-off wins. Saturday’s 4-3 win came on a Jose Miranda single. Friday’s 3-2 win also featured a 2-run 9th-inning rally.
The Orioles have not been swept in a series since May and they will need a strong outing to prevent it Sunday. Baltimore’s pitchers have been surprisingly good in the first 2 games of this series. RHP Spenser Watkins gave up 1 run in 6 IP Friday and RHP Jordan Lyles gave up 1 run in 6.1 IP Saturday.
The Twins, who are 25-17 at home, have struggled to generate offense and will face a tough matchup in the finale.
Orioles at Twins projected starters
RHP Tyler Wells vs. LHP Devin Smeltzer
Wells (6-4, 3.23 ERA) will make his 16th start this season. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 69 2/3 IP.
- Last start against the Twins: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 2-1 loss May 2.
- Has a 5-1 record with 2.19 ERA in his last 7 starts.
Smeltzer (4-1, 2.86 ERA) to make his 10th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 50 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision in 3-2 loss at Cleveland June 28 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K.
- His 2.86 is lowest ERA in his 4-year career
Orioles at Twins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Orioles +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Home -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Twins -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Twins 4
Money line
LEAN ORIOLES (+145)
The Orioles have played their best baseball against the AL Central going 5-2 in their last 7. They also play much better against left-handed starters, where they bat .291 when they put the ball in play.
Earlier this season they prevented the Twins from winning 3 in a row by scoring 9 runs of 12 hits. And now they are bringing in their best pitcher in Wells.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN ORIOLES +1.5 (-140)
If we are betting Baltimore to win then the +1.5 insurance is a no-brainer. The Orioles have covered in every game this series, and should have won both outright. They now cover 63.3% of the time this season.
Over/Under
Both pitchers have low strikeout percentages — Wells at 15.5% and Smeltzer at 15.8%. Both are career lows so expect the OVER (-130), especially since the Twins and Orioles are in the top half of extra-base percentage. Also the Over has hit in each of the last 5 home games for the Twins when the total is set between 7.0-8.5.
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