The No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks visit FTX Arena Sunday to take on the top-seeded Miami Heat. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Hawks won their way up to the No. 8 seed by winning the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Originally the No. 9 seed, Atlanta destroyed the Charlotte Hornets 132-103 in the 9-10 game Wednesday and then won at the Cleveland Cavaliers 107-101 Friday to claim the East’s No. 8 seed in the playoffs.
Atlanta has covered 9 of its last 11 games but is 37-45 against the spread (ATS) on the season. The Hawks are 15-27 ATS on the road, which should make bettors hesitant to back them.
As for Miami, it was a dominant 53-29 this season, claiming the top spot in the conference. Miami covered 6 consecutive games before failing to cover its regular-season finale. The Marlins are 21-20 ATS at home.
Miami ranks 12th in offensive rating and 4th in defensive rating. PF Jimmy Butler leads the team in scoring at 21.4 points per game. The Heat also rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.
Hawks at Heat odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:29 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Heat -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Hawks +6.5 (-108) | Heat -6.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Hawks at Heat key injuries
Hawks
- C Clint Capela (knee) out
- PF John Collins (finger) questionable
- SG Lou Williams (back) out
Heat
- C Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) questionable
- PF Markieff Morris (hip) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
- PG Gabe Vincent (toe) probable
[tipico]
Hawks at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 115, Hawks 105
Money line
PASS.
The Heat (-290) should win this game as the loss of Capela for the Hawks is notable. However, at the -290 price, it’s not worth any wager.
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Against the spread
BET HEAT -6.5 (-112).
The Hawks have been awful on the road this season, and if Cleveland had C Jarrett Allen at full strength in Friday’s game, you couldn’t convince many that Atlanta would’ve entered as a favorite and covered in that position.
Now, the Hawks will be down their starting center and may get back Collins, who may not be at full strength. Miami C Bam Adebayo will be versatile enough to make a difference on Atlanta PG Trae Young, the Hawks’ leading scorer.
Adebayo will make pick-and-rolls far less effective. These teams rank first (Heat) and second (Hawks) in 3-point shooting. The only difference is that Miami ranks first in opponents’ 3-point shooting.
I expect MIAMI -6.5 (-112) to heavily limit a lethal Atlanta attack and cover the spread with ease.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 218.5 (-115).
While the Heat should be able to limit the Hawks, Atlanta has ranked 8th in pace and 7th in offensive rating over its last 15 games. It’s going to get some good looks.
Atlanta also has ranked first in turnover rate over its last 15, so it takes care of the ball. Both teams have been far better at cashing Over tickets this season as well, with Atlanta 43-39 O/U and Miami 49-33 O/U.
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