The Atlanta Braves (60-28) and Tampa Bay Rays (57-35) meet Sunday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Tropicana Field is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-0
Atlanta won 6-1 Saturday as -152 road favorites to take the 1st 2 games of this series. The Braves took a 4-0 lead in the top of the 4th on an 1B Matt Olson’s RBI single and C Sean Murphy’s 3-run homer. The Rays managed to cut the lead to 4-1 on a throwing error in the bottom of the 8th, but the Braves put the game away with a 2-run 9th.
The Braves have won 3 straight games and are 12-1 in their last 13. Headed in the opposite direction are the Rays, who have lost 7 in a row. They’ still have the best home record in the majors at 34-15, while the Braves own the best road record at 30-13.
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Braves at Rays projected starters
RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Elder (7-1, 2.45 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 102 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 4-2 win at Cleveland Guardians Monday
- Will be 1st career start vs. Rays since MLB debut in 2022
Eflin (9-4, 3.24 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 97 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 3-1 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
- Career vs. Braves (regular season): 6-3, 3.11 ERA (81 IP, 28 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 16 appearances (13 starts)
Braves at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+155) | Rays +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Braves at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
LEAN BRAVES (-105).
The Braves are the hotter team, and with how dominant they’ve been on the road this season, betting them to complete the sweep is the way to go.
Sure, the Rays are a very good team and have dominated at home, but the Braves are simply the safer choice given Tampa Bay’s 7-game losing streak.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m confident that the Rays will cover +1.5 with a good chance of winning straight up, but the -190 juice is simply not worth the risk.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
There are several trends that point to an Under play here.
The Under cashed in the 1st 2 games of this series.
The Under is 7-3 in Atlanta’s last 10 games and 4-1 in Elder’s last 5 starts.
For Tampa Bay, the Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games, 6-4 in their last 10, and 4-1 in Eflin’s last 5 starts.
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