The Atlanta Braves (47-49) and Philadelphia Phillies (48-48) play the third game of a four-game set Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Drew Smyly is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 7-3 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 84 innings across 16 starts.
The southpaw allowed just 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts across 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays. Smyly has won five straight decisions and hasn’t lost in eight starts dating back to May 26 in Boston.
RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 3-4 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 across 77 1/3 innings in 15 starts and four relief appearances.
Velasquez allowed 1 hit and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts across 5 scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Miami Marlins last Saturday. He is 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA through three starts in July.
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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-180) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 7, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The BRAVES (+105) are a solid value at plus money in the third game of this set. Smyly is the difference in this one as he’s been red-hot and not yielding much of anything.
Look for Atlanta, who has alternated wins and losses in each of its last seven games, to push past Philadelphia.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The ALTERNATE RUN LINE BRAVES -1.5 (+155) is an even better value behind their lefty starter. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS across the last four games, cashing once as a favorite and twice as an underdog during the span.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 10 (-105) is the lean, ever so slightly. The wind will be blowing out to straightaway center field at a 7-10 mph clip – not a huge jetstream but enough to aid batters who get it up into the air.
Smyly has been limiting the damage lately, but Velasquez has been very giving.
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