The Atlanta Braves (29-30) and Philadelphia Phillies (29-31) close out a three-game series Thursday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 59 1/3 IP over 11 starts.
Anderson has yielded eight runs in his last 8 1/3 IP, but he’s been undone mostly by rates around the margins (batting average on balls in play, left-on-base rate, etc.). He has already faced Philadelphia three times this season (4.41 ERA in 16 IP).
RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 82 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
Wheeler owns a nifty 2.08 ERA (with a 14.9% swinging-strike rate) over his last five turns. He’s posted a sub-2.25 ERA in four starts against Atlanta the last two seasons.
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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:54 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
The Phillies have fallen off since playing well over the front half of May. Heading into Wednesday night, they were 7-13 since May 15.
Right-handers swing the Phillies around to their worst platoon splits (.680 OPS). Wheeler is coming off back-to-back 100-pitch games and has been a bit batting-average-on-balls-in-play fortunate of late (.275 BABIP for the season).
BACK THE BRAVES (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Stick with the ML play on the Braves; PASS on the added juice here.
Over/Under (O/U)
Atlanta on the road is a lesser brand of offense (.699 OPS). Add in some upside faith in both bullpens, then mix in a low-humidity, wind-in-from-right get-away day. BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (+100).
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