The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will meet Thursday at 3:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Max Fried is the projected starter pitcher for the Braves. In 2020, Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 starts. Fried faced Philadelphia twice, allowing just one run over 10 frames.
RHP Aaron Nola is due to start for the Phillies. A year ago, he went 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 71 1/3 IP over 12 starts. Nola kept his ground-ball rate high in 2020 (50%) while posting career-best whiff rates. In 71 career games at Citizens, the veteran hurler has held foes to a sparkling .637 OPS.
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Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday at 6:42 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
Pegging the starting pitching matchup as even – at least for argument’s sake, and taking into account the O/U win totals (91.5 for Atlanta, 80.5 for Philadelphia), getting the Braves at anything less than -110 looks like a solid value. Throw in the fact Atlanta torched righty pitching last season (.859 OPS) and ATLANTA (-105) is a solid Opening Day play.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Stick to the lesser-juice side in this one. PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over has gotten attention with the low total for this contest. A hefty breeze in from left is expected. Go with contrarian lean toward the UNDER 7 (+100). Consider waiting out a 7.5-run tag or limit your exposure with a partial-unit play at 7.
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