The Atlanta Braves (49-51) play the New York Mets (53-45) Tuesday in the third game of their five-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams started their series by splitting a doubleheader Monday. Atlanta took the first game 2-0 and New York won the latter half 1-0.
Season series: Mets lead 7-6.
RHP Charlie Morton is Atlanta’s projected starter. He is 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA (111 IP, 45 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 20 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 8 K Thursday at the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Morton is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER) against New York this season with 8 H, 3 BB and 26 K through three starts.
The Mets haven’t officially announced their starter but RHP Nick Tropeano is projected to get the nod. He is 0-1 with 8 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 2 K this season while making a combined five appearances for the Mets and San Francisco Giants.
- Last outing: No-decision in relief with 2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 0 K in New York’s 13-4 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates July 9.
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Braves at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 5, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
BET the BRAVES (-120) for 1 unit because Morton has been dealing lately and has pitched very well against the Mets this season.
Six of Morton’s previous seven outings were quality starts and over that span, he is 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 55/14 K/BB.
Furthermore, New York’s lineup has just a .197 wOBA against Morton this season with only 8 hits through 70 plate appearances on a hard-contact rate of 28.9%. Morton has a 2.49 xFIP and 32.9 K-BB% in his three starts against the Mets this season.
Also, this figures to be a bullpen day for New York, since Tropeano hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings in any outing, but New York’s bullpen is a bit overcooked heading into Tuesday’s game.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don’t know enough about New York’s pitching situation to lay it with the Braves -1.5 (+135) especially because Atlanta is just 9-15 ATS as a road favorite this season and 22-30 ATS against divisional opponents.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a quarter unit because these teams have a combined 36-50-5 O/U record in NL East games, Atlanta is 8-15-1 O/U as a road favorite and New York is 3-8 O/U as a home underdog.
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