The Atlanta Braves (35-37) conclude their four-game series with the New York Mets (37-31) Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Kyle Wright makes his second start of the season for the Braves. Wright got a no-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Atlanta’s 5-2 win at the Chicago Cubs April 16.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 38 at-bats with a .368/.455/.711 slash line, 9/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 8 RBIs.
RHP Tylor Megill makes his MLB debut for the Mets. Megill is the 21st ranked prospect in the Mets organization (according to MLB.com) and is 2-1 with a 3.35 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 in eight Minor League starts.
Since New York won the first game of a seven-inning doubleheader Monday they’ve been held scoreless in consecutive Atlanta victories.
Season series: Mets lead 4-3.
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Braves at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Braves 5, Mets 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit since Wright pitched well vs. the Mets last year, has a diverse pitch arsenal, and Atlanta’s lineup is a lot more effective against right-handed pitching.
For instance, in those two starts, New York’s lineup’s slash line was .176/.282/.235 with a .244 wOBA and a 26.1% hard-hit rate.
Also, Wright was the fifth overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft and has a five-pitch arsenal with his most used pitches being a slider and sinker.
Furthermore, two of the Mets’ best hitters vs. the sinker and slider (OFs Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo) are on the IL and four of New York’s projected starters have a negative run value against both pitches.
Finally, against right-handed pitching, the Braves hitters rank seventh in BB/K rate, eighth in wOBA, and 11th in wRC+ while New York’s lineup ranks worse in all three categories, bottoming out at 20th in wOBA.
The reason why I’m on Atlanta’s First 5 Innings money line and not the full game is because New York’s bullpen is the much better of the two.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Braves +0.5 (-150) First 5 Innings run line because I’d love to have a little insurance with my Atlanta First 5 Innings money line, but it’s above my price range.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-110) for a quarter unit – if at all – as a “contrarian” play of the market and because the Mets have scored two or fewer runs in six of their last eight games.
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