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The Atlanta Braves (82-70) and Cincinnati Reds (74-79) conclude a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 4-1
The Braves finally broke through against the Reds Wednesday night with a 7-1 win, their first over Cincinnati this season. SP Spencer Schwellenbach was sharp, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and 2 walks with 5 K’s over 6 innings. DH Marcell Ozuna went 3 for 4 with a homer and 2 RBIs while 3B Gio Urshela drove in 3 runs. The victory snapped a 3-game skid for Atlanta.
Reds SP Jakob Junis pitched 6 strong innings (1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K), but the Reds bullpen couldn’t hold up. RPs Tony Santillan and Justin Wilson gave up a combined 5 runs in 1 1/3 innings. CF TJ Friedl drove in the only run for Cincinnati on a sac fly in the 6th.
Braves at Reds projected starters
RHP Chris Sale vs. RHP Julian Aguiar
Sale (17-3, 2.35 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 172 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 10-1 home victory against LA Dodgers Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 7-3, 2.42 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 14 starts
- Last start vs. Reds: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 8-2 home win June 1, 2023, as a member of Boston Red Sox
Aguiar (2-0, 4.88 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-4 victory at Minnesota Twins Friday
- 2024 home splits: 0-0, 10.80 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 2.25 WHIP, 4.1 K/9 in 2 starts
- Has never faced Braves
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Braves at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:35 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-125) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Braves at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Reds 1
Moneyline
PASS.
The Braves (-200) win this game and the series Thursday afternoon, but I’ll take the better odds on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET BRAVES -1.5 (-125).
Betting on the Braves to cover the run line Thursday looks like a smart move with Sale taking the mound. He’s been lights out lately, not losing a start since June 27.
The Reds, on the other hand, really struggle against lefties, hitting just .226 as a team and going 16-25 against southpaws this season. Plus, Cincinnati hasn’t been great in day games, sitting at 24-35 on the season. With Atlanta only 2 games back in the Wild Card race, it’ll be motivated to grab the win.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
Betting the Under feels like a smart move with Sale pitching. He’s been lights out, giving up more than 2 earned runs only 3 times in 28 starts this year. In fact, he’s allowed 1 run or fewer in half of those games.
The big question is how much offense Atlanta can produce, but with Sale likely keeping the Reds in check, the Under looks like the way to go.
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