The Cincinnati Reds (40-35) welcome the Atlanta Braves (48-26) to Great American Ball Park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 3-0
The Reds are riding an 11-game win streak and have won 3 straight 3-game series, beating the Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies. They are in 1st place in the NL Central after overtaking the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati beat the Colorado Rockies 5-3 on Wednesday.
Atlanta leads the NL East and has won 8 straight games, sweeping the Ohiladelphia Phillies and the Rockies. The Braves are coming off a 5-1 win over the Phillies Thursday. The Braves have held opponents to 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 games.
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Braves at Reds projected starters
RHP AJ Smith-Shawver vs. RHP Luke Weaver
Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA) makes his 3rd career start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 13 1/3 IP.
- The 20-year-old made his MLB debut in a 8-5 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 4, allowing 0 ER in 2 1/3 IP
- Braves are 3-0 in games he’s pitched in.
Weaver (1-2, 6.47 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 57 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K in 9-7 extra-inning win vs. Houston Astros
- Has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 straight starts
- Reds are 6-5 with Weaver on the mound
Braves at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:35 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Reds 5
Moneyline
PASS.
The Braves swept the Reds earlier in the season and are among the teams just as hot as Cincinnati. They also have a pitcher that is starting to perform at a high level and should be able to win outright.
However, at (-150), it isn’t worth a play. Similarly, the Reds have been better on the road than at home and aren’t worth the game at (+125) with Weaver on the mound.
Run line/Against the spread
TAKE REDS +1.5 (-115).
Cincinnati is 14-11 on the run line as a home underdog. It is 22-16 on the run line as the home team as well. Both are situations it will be in on Friday evening.
On that note, Atlanta is just 28-36 on the run line as a favorite. While Smith-Shawver has pitched well, he is still young and may struggle against an ultra-hot Reds attack.
Back REDS +1.5 (-115).
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 10.5 (-120).
Both teams have consistently hit the Over this season.
The Braves are 41-31-2 O/U and have gone Over in 6 of their last 9 battles. Meanwhile, the Reds are 4-3 O/U in their last 7 games and 42-33 O/U on the season.
Considering those trends, back runs to be scored and take the OVER 10.5 (-120).
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