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The Atlanta Braves (33-24) take on the Boston Red Sox (30-30) Tuesday in the opener of a 2-game set at Fenway Park at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-0
The Braves had the day off Monday after losing some steam in the last few days. They lost 3 of 4 to the Washington Nationals at home and took 2 of 3 from an inferior Oakland Athletics team. The Braves are averaging 3.7 R/game over the last 10, but they are very hot-and-cold since losing stud OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) for the season.
The Red Sox had a rest day at home after splitting a 4-game series with the Detroit Tigers over the weekend. They’re 4-6 over the last 10 and also very feast-or-famine offensively. They scored 17 runs in the last 3 games and scored 19 in the 7 combined before that. Their pitching is starting to erode, too, as they are now 5th with a 3.37 ERA after leading the majors for much of the season.
Braves at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Kutter Crawford
Fried (5-2, 2.97 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 66 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-0 home victory May 28 against Washington Nationals
- 1 career start vs. BOS: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-3 road victory Aug. 31, 2020
Crawford (2-4, 3.29 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 68 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-1 road setback Wednesday against Baltimore Orioles
- 1 career start vs. ATL: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-1 road loss May 7
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Braves at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook, one of the most popular betting apps; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Braves at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
I like the Braves here, but -165 is a little out of my range for a regular season moneyline.
OF Jarred Kelenic has a 5-game hitting streak and has extra-base hits in 3 of 4. I like his outlook today against Crawford, whom he went 2-for-2 with a homer against May 7.
Take JARRED KELENIC OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
The Red Sox are just 8-22 on the RL at home. Crawford has allowed 11 ER in his last 2 GS combined, and the Red Sox are just 6-10 vs. left-handed pitchers.
Take the BRAVES -1.5 (-105).
Over/Under
The Braves are 4-6 O/U in their last 10, and the Red Sox are 5-4-1. Both games in Atlanta last month went Under this total. The weather shouldn’t be too big of a factor as there’s a 6-mph wind blowing toward the Green Monster in left. I don’t love this total, but with the inconsistencies on offense, I would take the UNDER 8 (-105).
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