The Arizona Diamondbacks (4-8) and Washington Nationals (3-6) open a four-game series Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Merrill Kelly is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. His combined 2020-21 line: 3-4 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 41 1/3 IP spanning 7 starts.
LHP Patrick Corbin is the projected starter for the Nationals. Over 2020 and 2021, Corbin is 2-8 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 through 70 IP over 12 starts. This start will mark Corbin’s second of the season; the veteran southpaw started the 2021 campaign on the COVID-19 list.
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Diamondbacks at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Diamondbacks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Nationals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) | Nationals -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Nationals 6, Diamondbacks 4
Money line (ML)
The Diamondbacks are 2-5 over their last seven games; they’ve coughed up 5.7 runs per game over that stretch. Arizona is 2-5 on the road this season and went just 9-21 (.300) away from Phoenix in 2020.
Washington has more to give on both sides of the runs/runs allowed equation, but the Nats are only a value up to -165. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Kelly is coming off a rough outing at Coors Field with 6 runs allowed over 6 innings. In this start, he draws a Nationals lineup which is certainly not cranked up yet but the right-hander’s short career includes troubles away from home with a road ERA of 5.25 on a .806 OPS allowed.
Corbin was banged around in his COVID-delayed debut. He walked three and was cuffed around by hard contact in yielding 6 runs over 4 1/3 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Look for a bounce in start No. 2. The Diamondbacks aren’t the Dodgers and in limited plate appearances, current Arizona bats own a .358 OPS against him.
The veteran lefty figures to be a couple clicks stronger in this turn. In the last couple of seasons, he has exhibited a strong rebound ability by logging fine starts after clunkers.
Peg WASHINGTON -1.5 (+110) as a solid play.
Over/Under (O/U)
The D-backs figure to be at their best against lefties. Some gravity in the Nats’ offensive numbers also makes for a lean toward a higher total score.
BACK THE OVER 8 (-115).
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