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The Arizona Diamondbacks (30-34) and San Diego Padres (33-34) meet Saturday for the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch from Petco Park is set for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: San Diego leads 3-2
San Diego routed Arizona 10-3 in the 2nd game of the series Friday while cashing as a -135 home favorite. The Diamondbacks were trailing 5-3 at the end of the 7th inning, but the Padres scored 5 more runs in the 8th to put the game away.
RHP Michael King picked up the win, allowing just 4 hits and 1 walk with 5 K’s in 5 scoreless innings. Friday’s win ended a 5-game losing streak for the Padres.
Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Ryne Nelson vs. RHP Matt Waldron
Nelson (3-4, 5.44 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 48 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 4-2 home win over San Francisco Giants Monday
- 2024 vs. San Diego: 1-0, 7.20 ERA (5 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, an 11-4 home win May 5
- Career vs. San Diego: 2-2, 6.23 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 6 starts
Waldron (3-5, 3.98 ERA) makes his 13th start. The rookie has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 63 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 2-1 loss at Los Angeles Angels Monday
- 2024 vs. Arizona: 0-1, 21.00 ERA (3 IP, 7 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 1 start, an 11-4 road loss May 5
- Career vs. Arizona: 0-2, 13.50 ERA (8 IP, 12 ER), 2.38 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 2 starts
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Padres -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Padres 3
Moneyline
LEAN DIAMONDBACKS (+120).
Arizona is 2-1 in its last 3 road games, while the Padres are only 1-2 in their last 3 at home. The Diamondbacks are also 3-1 in their last 4 meetings with the Padres in San Diego.
This is only a lean because Arizona is just 6-4 in the last 10 meetings. Arizona is also just 5-5 in its last 10 games overall, while the Padres are 4-6.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I expect the Diamondbacks to cover as +1.5 (-175) underdogs, but the line is too heavy to risk betting on as currently set. Bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8 (-105).
The Over has hit in 3 of Arizona’s last 4 games overall and is 4-1 in its last 5 on the road. For San Diego, the Over is 2-1 in its last 3 home games. The Over has also hit in 3 of the last 4 Arizona-San Diego matchups overall and is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in San Diego.
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