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The Arizona Diamondbacks (37-38) and Philadelphia Phillies (49-25) open a 3-game set Friday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won last year’s regular-season series 4-3 and Diamondbacks won 4-3 in NLCS
The Diamondbacks have not lost any of their last 6 series, winning 4 and splitting 2. They are 12-6 in their last 18 games. They are coming off a 5-2 win on the road over the Washington Nationals Thursday to win the first series of their road trip.
The Phillies are 4-5 since returning from their series against the New York Mets in London. They are coming off a series win at home over the San Diego Padres but lost the finale 5-2 Wednesday.
Diamondbacks at Phillies projected starters
LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Taijuan Walker
Montgomery (5-4, 6.00 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 57 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 12-5 home victory over Chicago White Sox Sunday
- Heading into Sunday’s start, had allowed 17 runs in previous 3 outings (11 2/3 IP)
Walker (3-2, 5.33 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 49 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-2 road loss to Baltimore Orioles Saturday
- Phillies are 1-5 in his last 6 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Diamondbacks at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 7, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The Phillies (-145) have won 6 straight series openers. They have the best record in the National League and best home record in all of baseball. They face an Arizona team that is 9-15 against teams with winning records and 18-20 on the road.
While the Phillies are 1-5 in Walker’s last 6 starts, Montgomery has been disappointing. He has a 9.18 ERA over his last 4 starts.
Betting the Phillies at -145 to win isn’t a bad bet, but the run line is a better option.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Fourteen of Arizona’s last 16 losses, including 6 straight, have been by 2 or more runs. The D-backs are 17-17 ATS on the road, while the Phillies are 22-17 ATS at home.
Of the Phillies’ 49 victories, 37 have been by at least 2 runs.
It is a good bet that if they win, it will be by multiple runs, so take advantage of the plus odds.
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+135).
Over/Under
Three of the Phillies’ last 5 games and 6 of the last 10 have had 11 or more total runs.
Arizona’s last 3 games did not reach double digits in total runs, but 8 of its previous 9 did surpass this number. Montgomery’s last 4 starts have all had totals of more than 10.
BET OVER 10 (-105).
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