Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (8-5) and Miami Marlins (6-7) open a 3-game set at loanDepot Park on Friday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Arizona won 5-1 last year

The D-backs had Thursday off after taking 2 of 3 from the Milwaukee Brewers earlier in the week. Arizona has won 5 of its 6 games and 7 of the last 10. Arizona hitters are taking good at-bats as they are the 2nd-hardest team to strike out in the early going. 3B Josh Rojas is white-hot right now. After going 0-for-7 to open the season, he is 14-for-24 (.583) with 6 RBIs.

Miami had the day off Thursday as well after taking the final 2 games of a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. 2B Luis Arraez has been a difference-maker hitting .500 (23-for-46) with 6 extra-base hits and 5 RBIs. He has been dropped from leadoff to 3rd in the order.

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Diamondbacks at Marlins projected starters

LHP Madison Bumgarner vs. LHP Trevor Rogers

Bumgarner (0-1, 7.27 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 2.19 WHIP, 10.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 8 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 10 BB and 9 H in just 8 2/3 to start the season; both starts were against the LA Dodgers
  • Last 5 GS vs. Miami (dating back to 2019): 2-0, 1.98 ERA
  • Marlins hitters have just a .198 BA with a .236 wOBA in 122 plate appearances against him

Rogers (0-2, 6.00 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 9 IP.

  • Had 2 pretty similar starts against the New York Mets to begin the season, allowing 3 ER in under 5 IP
  • The D-backs roughed him up for 5 ER on 6 H and 2 BB while fanning 4 in 4 1/3 IP in 1 GS last year

Diamondbacks at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Marlins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140) | Marlins -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Diamondbacks at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline

With Arizona coming off a cozy 7-game homestand, I’m going to side with the Marlins here. I believe they have the better pitcher on the mound despite the early rough results. Miami is just 3-4 at home to start the year so there’s no chance I’m taking them at -165.

Instead, head to BetMGM’s Win/Total section and take MARLINS AND OVER 5.5 RUNS (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

The Marlins are just 5-8 on the RL and 2-5 at home. You’re going to have to give me something better than +125 to take that leap.

How about a One Game Parlay?

MARLINS ML + OVER 5.5 TOTAL RUNS + ROGERS 4 K’S comes out to +140. And I’d rather risk my money there. Rogers has 4+ K’s in 6 of his last 7 GS and both career starts against Arizona.

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Over/Under

You can pass here since we’re getting creative and adding some risk with the above wagers. I like the Under, but the juice is on the Over. Both teams are 5-4-1 O/U. The Under is 6-0 in MadBum’s last 6 road starts with a total between 9.0-10.5. The wind is also blowing in at 9 mph. I’ll take the UNDER 9 (-105) or PASS.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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