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The Arizona Diamondbacks (4-3) and Atlanta Braves (3-2) meet Friday at 7:20 p.m. ET as they open a 3-game series at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; split last year’s series 3-3
The Diamondbacks have played all their games thus far at home. On Wednesday afternoon, they wrapped up a 3-game series with the Yankees, falling to New York 6-5 in 11 innings.
The Braves last played Tuesday, falling 3-2 at the Chicago White Sox. Atlanta and Chicago had their Wednesday meeting rained out, and Atlanta had an off day Thursday, so the Braves open Friday with 2 days’ rest.
Diamondbacks at Braves projected starters
LHP Tommy Henry vs RHP Spencer Strider
Henry (0-1, 11.25 ERA) makes his 2nd start this season. He allowed 5 ER on 6 H and 2 BB with 4 K in 4 IP in his debut vs. the Colorado Rockies Saturday; Arizona lost 9-4.
- Owns a 4.76 ERA across 140 career IP
- Has never faced the Braves
Strider (0-0, 3.60 ERA) is tabbed for his 2nd start. He allowed 2 ER on 3 H and 2 BB with 8 K in 5 IP in a no-decision at the Philadelphia Phillies last Friday, a 9-3 Braves win.
- Owns a 3.37 ERA through 66 career games
- Has held opposing batters to a .428 OPS across 11 career March/April games
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-1, 4.96 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 11 H, 7 BB, 27 K in 3 starts
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Diamondbacks at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Braves -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +2.5 (-130) | Braves -2.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Diamondbacks at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
PASS: better leverage can be had on the RL.
Run line/Against the spread
Atlanta clocked a league-best .870 OPS against southpaws in 2023. The Braves went 52-29 at home last year, logging a plus-102 run differential along the way. Overall, they won 33 games by 5 or more runs.
The Braves are 7-3 across their last 10 games against the D-backs; 6 of those 7 wins have been by multiple runs.
Be wary of using surface ERA when looking at past performances against a franchise. For example, per ESPN, Spencer Strider has held current Arizona batters to an aggregate .438 OPS. And its a whiff-heavy .438 OPS.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the best tag here: BACK THE BRAVES -1.5 (-134).
Over/Under
The last 16 Atlanta home games against Arizona have seen the Under cash 11 times.
The Braves and Diamondbacks rank 1st and 4th, respectively, in OPS through the 1st week of the season. But both clubs have some peripheral numbers that would indicate a dose of regression being due. Atlanta has registered an overall .359 batting average on balls in play and a .480 BABIP in high-leverage situations. Arizona has filed a .321 BABIP overall and a .439 mark when leading off innings.
Both offenses have thus far enjoyed generous home-run/fly-ball rates. With Strider being 1 of the mound particulars and both bullpens getting a day of rest, TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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