The Arizona Diamondbacks (54-42) and Atlanta Braves (61-33) meet for a Thursday matinee as they cap off a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 12:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Arizona leads 3-2
Arizona is looking for a series sweep after taking the first 2 games of this series. An 11-of-24 (.458) performance with runners in scoring position has lifted the Diamondbacks the last 2 nights. That’s a reversal of fortune for a club that went 3-of-24 (.125) in such situations over 4 games prior, all of which were losses.
The Braves have lost 4 in a row. It’s the first 4-game skid for a powerful Atlanta club that leads the NL East by 9 1/2 games since May 10-14.
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Diamondbacks at Braves projected starters
RHP Zac Gallen vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Gallen (11-4, 3.14 ERA) is making his 21st start. He’s logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 123 1/3 IP.
- Owns a 4.32 ERA over his last 4 starts
- Has registered a 5.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road compared to a 1.48 ERA and 0.85 WHIP at home
Strider (11-3, 3.66 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 14.3 K/9 through 110 2/3 IP.
- Stumbled in his 1st start after the break, and he’s looking to get back to a recent form that saw him log a 1.38 ERA, 13.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 from June 20-July 8. The 24-year-old right-hander allowed 5 ER in 6 IP against the Chicago White Sox Saturday.
- Has overcome a .332 batting average on balls in play in clocking his solid 3.66 ERA for the season
- Has gone 6-plus innings in 5 straight starts
Diamondbacks at Braves odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +166 (bet $100 to win $166) | Braves -198 (bet $198 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-125) | Braves -1.5 (+104)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Diamondbacks at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
Arizona was the play and/or lean the last 2 days, but Thursday’s equation changes due to the mound match-up. Peg Gallen as a fade candidate and Strider as a nice play in this contest and in the intermediate future. Their expected-ERA figures and peripheral analytics bear out some good luck, bad luck, respectively.
For example, Gallen has found some louder contact of late, but that’s been hidden by a .264 batting average on balls in play over his last 7 starts.
Arizona has lost 4 straight get-away games.
Some bankrolls may have bettors being risk-averse at this level of a favorite, but there is value and leverage in the BRAVES (-198).
Run line/Against the spread
The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+10.25 Units, 40% ROI).
Players looking to avoid the favorite outlay may want to BACK ATLANTA -1.5 (+104).
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Over/Under
On a hot one in Atlanta — temps in the 90s, shading the upside of 8.5 runs is just. There are crisscrossing signals — especially on the mound — as to how this contest plays out, and the 22-cent proposition deserves a bit of a no on its own.
PASS.
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