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The Minnesota Twins are coming off a 2-0 home sweep of Toronto and will square off against the Houston Astros in a best-of-5 AL Division Series. The two teams will get started Saturday at 4:45 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Twins won 4-2
Minnesota ran away with the AL Central title and finished strong. Including the Wild Card sweep of the Blue Jays, the Twins have won 10 of their last 13 games.
Houston finished the season with 4 straight wins to edge out Texas for the AL West crown. However, the Astros went 4-13 in their last 17 home games and finished with a losing record (39-42) at Minute Maid Park.
Twins at Astros projected starters
RHP Bailey Ober vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Ober went 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 26 starts during the season. He registered a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 144 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 3-2 loss at Colorado Rockies Oct. 1
- Road stats: 5-3, 3.57 ERA (68 IP, 27 ER), 9.9 K/9 in 12 starts
- Wasn’t on Wild Card roster as Twins would need just 3 starters at most
- Gets nod in Game 1 against Houston, a team he faced twice in career, allowing 5 ER in 10 IP (2 starts) with 2 no-decisions in 2021
Verlander went 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA across 27 starts during the regular season for the New York Mets (16 starts) and Astros. He recorded a 1.13 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 162 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 1-0 victory at Arizona Diamondbacks Sept. 30
- In 6 starts in Houston this season (5 with Astros, 1 with Mets), registered a 4.97 ERA (38 IP, 21 ER) with an outstanding 36/3 K/BB ratio, but 8 HR allowed
- Career vs. Twins: 22-10, 2.76 ERA (267 2/3 IP, 82 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 40 starts — didn’t face them in 2023 but tossed 14 scoreless innings in 2 starts during the 2022 season
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Twins at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:56 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-155) | Astros -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Astros 4
Moneyline
The Twins are a roll and ended the season with 11 wins in their last 16 road games. Ober has been solid all season and over his final 4 starts, put up a 2.08 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 5 ER) with 26 K’s vs. 3 walks.
Verlander has had another nice year as well, albeit with a drop-off in his whiffs — 144 this season compared to 185 in 2022.
Houston hasn’t been as dominant as usual at home this season, and this looks like a toss-up. Side with the underdog and TAKE MINNESOTA (+135).
Run line/Against the spread
AVOID.
This sets up to be a tight game but there’s not enough value in taking +1.5 runs, or in laying 1.5 runs on either side Play this one straight up and PASS.
Over/Under
Both starting pitchers are strong, but so are the offenses as they each ranked top 6 in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching this season. Though the Twins scored just 5 runs in their 2-game sweep of Toronto, they scored 50 runs in their final 7 regular-season games (7.1 per game).
Both offenses should do their part in pushing this total just OVER 7.5 (-110).
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