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The 7th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1, 2-1 SEC) meet the 10th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 2-1) Saturday at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC / ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Alabama vs. Tennessee odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Crimson Tide narrowly escaped another embarrassing loss last week against South Carolina, hanging on for a 27-25 win despite being favored by 21 points. The Gamecocks were unable to convert a 2-point conversion after a TD with 43 seconds left in regulation. South Carolina led 19-14 going into the 4th quarter, too.
The Tide are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 2 outings, including the 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt Oct. 5. The Over has cashed in 4 in a row, with the offense going for 35 or more points in 5 of 6 games and the defense allowing an alarming 33.0 PPG in the previous 3 outings.
The Volunteers also lost 2 weeks ago, falling 19-14 at Arkansas as 14-point favorites. Tennessee had a bit of a hangover from that one, escaping with a 23-17 win over lowly Florida in overtime last week at Neyland as the Under (56) cashed for the 3rd consecutive game.
Alabama leads the all-time series 59-39-7, including 16 of the past 17 since Oct. 20, 2007. The lone exception was a wild 52-49 win Oct. 15, 2022, in the most recent meeting in Knoxville.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Alabama at Tennessee odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 4:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Alabama -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Tennessee +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread: Alabama -3 (-110) | Tennessee +3 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 57.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Alabama at Tennessee picks and predictions
Prediction
Tennessee 36, Alabama 33
Moneyline
TENNESSEE (+125) is worth playing at home as a slight ‘dog. The truth is, neither of these teams is playing very good football lately.
Alabama (-150) could easily have lost to South Carolina, and that would have effectively taken it out of the running for a playoff spot. But, it didn’t, and if it is able to score a big road win against the Vols, it is right back in the mix.
However, QB Nico Iamaleava and the Tennessee offense should give the Bama pass defense plenty of trouble, similar to how Vandy’s Diego Pavia picked it apart.
Against the spread
Take TENNESSEE +3 (-110) in front of the home fans. In the most recent meeting in Knoxville, we had a wild 52-49 shootout. With Iamaleava and QB Jalen Milroe, it wouldn’t be surprising to seeing another close, yet high-scoring affair.
The Vols are 0-2 ATS in the past 2 games and have failed to cover the past 3 regular-season outings as underdogs, so there is risk.
However, Alabama -3 (-110) is 0-2 ATS in the past 2 outings, too, while going 1-1 ATS on the road. As a single-digit favorite, Bama has cashed in 5 of the past 6. But, that was during the Nick Saban era. The Tide just don’t have the same mystique under Kalen DeBoer.
Over/Under
OVER 57.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.
Forget about the 2022 meeting, the last in Knoxville, when we had a combined 101 points. We should still see a decent amount of points with 2 top-tier passers, though.
The Over has hit in 4 in a row for Bama, and 5 of 6 games, while the total has gone high in 2 road outings with the Tide averaging 38.5 PPG and allowing 25.0 PPG.
There is risk, however, as Tennessee has cashed the Under in 3 in a row, while the defense is allowing just 17.0 PPG in the span. However, the past 2 games were against Arkansas and Florida. Milroe and Bama will prove to be a much larger challenge.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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