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The Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) meet the USC Trojans (3-2, 1-2) Saturday. Kickoff from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Penn State vs. USC odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Penn State picked up a 27-11 win over the UCLA Bruins Oct. 5, but failed to cover as a 29.5-point favorite. QB Drew Allar had his best game of the season, throwing for 237 yards with a TD while rushing for another. This is the Nittany Lions’ 1st road game in their last 4 outings. Penn State is No. 5 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
USC was stunned 24-17 by the Minnesota Golden Gophers Oct. 5, failing to cover as a 9.5-point favorite. USC turned the ball over 3 times in the loss while only managing to force 1 turnover on the other end. The Trojans dropped out of the rankings after being ranked No. 15 before the Oct. 5 loss.
– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Penn State at USC odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 1:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Penn State -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | USC +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread (ATS): Penn State -4.5 (-110) | USC +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Penn State at USC picks and predictions
Prediction
Penn State 27, USC 17
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Nittany Lions (-200) to pick up the win here and stay undefeated, but their ML is too expensive. Bet the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
LEAN PENN STATE -4.5 (-110).
The Nittany Lions are the better team and have yet to allow an opponent to finish within 5 points of them this year.
Penn State’s defense allows only 233.2 yards per game, good for 2nd in the Big Ten, and should help the Nittany Lions cover vs. a USC offense which is not as potent as what we have become accustomed to under coach Lincoln Riley.
This is a lean because Penn State is only 2-3 ATS this year and the Trojans have gone 1-1 straight up/ATS vs. ranked opponents (LSU and Michigan).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 50.5 (-110).
The Under is 3-2 for USC this season, has hit in each of Penn State’s last 3 games, and is 4-1 for the Nittany Lions this year.
Penn State’s defense allows just 11.4 points per game, while USC’s unit allows just 18.4 PPG. Penn State does have an offense that can attack in both the passing and rushing games, but this will be a game where Penn State will rely on its run game and defense, and that will help the Under hit here.
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