Air Force at New Mexico: Can the Falcons beat the Lobos?

Our Simulations Says Navy Wins 14-7 Can Air Force Prove Our Simulation Wrong? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire WEEK 6: Air Force Falcons 1-4 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos 1-4 (0-1 Mountain West) WHEN: Saturday, October 12th, 5 p.m. MT …

Our Simulations Says Navy Wins 14-7

Can Air Force Prove Our Simulation Wrong?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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WEEK 6: Air Force Falcons 1-4 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos 1-4 (0-1 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, October 12th, 5 p.m. MT

WHERE: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

TV: truTV/MAX
JB Long, play by play
Mike Golic, Jr., analyst
Bridget Howard, reporter

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 26-14

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | New Mexico

 

It’s already Week six, and either the Falcons or Lobos are going to find themselves in the win column in Conference play by Sunday. While both teams are winless in Mountain West play, Air Force is already two games in the hole, while New Mexico has suffered just one loss, coming from their matchup against Fresno State a few weeks back. You always want to win Conference games, but for two programs that could really use the extra practices for player development that come from a Bowl week, losing a fifth game on the year before week seven would all but end any dreams of a post season game.

The Lobos didn’t exactly enter the 2024 campaign labeled as Conference contenders, but this team is plenty interesting. They brought in a very established coach in Bronco Mendenhall, who by the way is 5-1 in his career against Air Force. New Mexico also had a massive influx of transfers with the coaching change, bringing in 42 players from other programs. Sprinkle in 11 returning starters, playmakers like Luke Wysong, Tavian Combs (injured) and Devon Dampier, and you can see why there is plenty of intrigue in Albuquerque.

Not all that different from the Lobos, Air Force had a massive roster overhaul. Now, the nature of the changes to their personnel, and certainly the way which they are limited to address it are in stark contrast. As most are aware, the Military Academies don’t have the benefit of the transfer portal, nor do they have conventional redshirt opportunities to develop their players. Now as some, and they will say that no transfer portal is an advantage as it is one less thing to worry about. That reality is highly debatable though.

Having 30 players now, who have started games for their first time this year, it’s fair to say the luxury of dipping into the pool might not of been a bad option to have. That is not the reality though. The harsh truth is, Troy Calhoun is looking for answers to a lot of questions, with very limited resources to pull from.

The Air Force offense has been dreadful, the defense hasn’t been a whole lot better, and now they are dealing with a litany of injuries. These are Biblical challenges, right out of the book of Job.

THE TALE OF THE TAPE

When comparing these two teams it’s hard to ignore the discrepancy in offensive production. The Lobos have thrown for nearly 1,000 yards more than the Falcons, are scoring 20+ more points per game and have double the passing and rushing touchdowns that Air Force has. You read that correct, the New Mexico Lobos have scored twice as many rushing touchdowns as the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons on the season. In fact, the Lobos quarterback, Devon Dampier has more rushing yards (333) than any two Air Force ball carriers combined.

Now, it is fair to point out, this New Mexico team has a top 25 scoring offense, averaging 32 points per game. But to be doubling up the Falcons in so many meaningful offensive statistics is troubling.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lobos haven’t been nearly as productive. New Mexico is giving up more than 240 rush yards, on the way to surrendering almost 44 points per game. If ever this Air Force running game was going to find life, it has to be in Albuquerque.

CONCLUSION

Everyone is down on the Falcons right now. Rightfully so, as they haven’t inspired a lot of confidence with their on field play. Unfortunately for Air Force, injuries haven’t made rebounding from their third consecutive loss any easier.

It’s hard to believe the real perspective of this game is focusing on all the things that have to go the Falcon’s way, to give this team a chance. A chance against a one-win New Mexico Lobo’s team. But that that’s where we are right now. It’s about doing the little things right, and building on those small things.

 

It goes without saying, the offense has to be turnover free if Air Force wants to win this game. But they also have to avoid those drive killing penalties, which have started to rear far too often. And whether it’s Quentin Hayes or John Busha under center, the mesh point, pitch and exchange must be clean. This team has fumbled the ball eight times already, somehow they’ve lost just two of those fumbles. They should not try their “fumble luck”.

The real problem I suspect in this game is going to be the playmaking ability of New Mexico’s offense. Specifically, the off-schedule ability of Devon Dampier to make plays. He has thrown six picks on the year, so the defense needs to be very opportunistic when better discretion is compromised. The defense really must be assignment sound as well. This Falcon team looks less athletic and is far less experienced than teams of past, so the details and mental aspects of the game are imperative. Otherwise they are going to find themselves chasing athletes that they simply aren’t going to be able to match up well with.

There simply isn’t enough going well for Air Force to suggest they are going to beat a team with scoring potential. The offense, and the run game in particular need a jolt, and maybe giving Quentin Hayes a little more run under center can provide that. But if the line isn’t able to control the line of scrimmage, it doesn’t matter who is under center. That is why the game within the game is going to be so important this week.

You want to win every game you play. You are used to winning games against New Mexico. But if we are being honest about who this team is to date, there are no guaranteed wins. That’s why it is so important that the running game finds itself this week. They weren’t successful against what was statistically a very bad Wyoming team. Well, here is another chance to find some confidence. As the running game goes, so too does this team. A healthy rushing attack gives the defense relief, reducing the number of possessions of the opposition. Not to mention, it can downright wear out an opponent physically and mentally. Focus on finding your game Air Force, the results will come. I just don’t know it’s going to be the results we are hoping for yet, not this week anyways.

New Mexico 31 – Air Force 21

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