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The Milwaukee Brewers welcome the New York Mets to American Family Field for the finale of a best-of-3 NL Wild Card Series. First pitch is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoffs series: Tied 1-1; Regular-season series: Brewers won 5-1
The Mets opened the series with an 8-4 win Tuesday. They got out to a quick 3-1 lead after 2 innings Wednesday, but failed to seal the deal as the Brewers tallied 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th.
New York struggled down the stretch of the regular season, losing 4 of its last 6 games, all of which were on the road. The Mets were 84-78 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 44-38 ATS in away games.
The Brewers, who won the NL Central, played the Mets to close their regular seasons, winning the series 2-1. Milwaukee won 5 of 7 to close the regular season. It has closed as a favorite in both games in the series. The Brewers were 85-77 ATS on the season.
Mets at Brewers projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Tobias Myers
Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) made 31 regular season starts. He finished with a 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 170 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 6-0 defeat at Brewers Saturday
- 2024 away stats: 5-5, 3.86 ERA (86 1/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 16 starts
- Career vs. Brewers: 9-7, 2.98 ERA (130 IP, 43 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 22 starts and 1 relief outing
Myers (9-6, 3.00 ERA) made 25 starts and 2 relief appearances in 2024. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 138 innings.
- Last start: Win, 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K in Saturday’s home victory vs. Mets — his only career start vs. New York
- 2024 home stats: 4-1, 2.86 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 12 starts and 1 relief appearance
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Mets at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mets at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (-130).
The Brewers have made American Family Field a fortress this season, posting the 5th-best home record in the majors. They are 48-35 at home in 2024. Similarly, the Mets were the 6th-best home team in MLB yet fell outside the top 8 in road wins with just 43.
Myers has also been far better at home, and the Brewers are 9-4 when he pitches at American Family. They were the more lethal team as the regular season closed and should be able to use that home strength to their advantage.
At these odds, take BREWERS (-130).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no good value on the spread. This is the final game for one of these 2 teams, and this should be a competitive battle. Expect it to be a 1-run game, but the Mets as run-line underdogs are far too expensive to take.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).
The Brewers and Mets have gone Over in both games this series, but this loser-goes-home game should be different. The Brewers were just 3-4 O/U in their last 7 games, having allowed 3 or fewer runs in 4 of the 7.
The Mets have gone 4-5 O/U in their last 9 games. They were held scoreless in 2 of their last 4 games and to 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 9. Both teams have a solid starter, and the last time they pitched — Saturday’s 6-0 Brewers home win — the total went Under.
With that in mind, play UNDER 7.5 (-115).
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