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The Baltimore Orioles (88-71) and Minnesota Twins (82-77) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Target Field is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Orioles vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 3-0
The Orioles were thumped 10-1 in their series finale against the New York Yankees on Thursday night. RHP Corbin Burnes struck out 9 over 5 innings, but the bullpen allowed 7 ER over the next 2 innings. The Orioles need 1 win or 1 Detroit Tigers loss to clinch the top AL Wild Card spot.
The Twins lost 8-6 to the Miami Marlins in 13 innings on Thursday. A pinch-hit 2-run double from Brooks Lee in the 8th inning forced extra innings. SS Carlos Correa went 3-for-5 with a solo HR. Minnesota is 3 games back in the race for the final AL Wild Card spot.
Orioles at Twins projected starters
LHP Cade Povich vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
Povich (2-9, 5.59 ERA) makes his 16th career start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 74 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 6-4 home loss vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 0-5, 9.75 ERA (24 IP, 26 ER), 1.88 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 9 starts
- First time facing Twins
Lopez (15-9, 4.11 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 179 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 8-1 loss at Boston Red Sox Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 7-4, 3.64 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 39 R (33 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 14 starts
- Last start vs. Orioles: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-2 road loss April 17
- Career vs. Orioles: 3-0, 1.06 ERA (17 IP, 2 ER) 7 H, 3 BB, 20K in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Orioles at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Twins -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-145) | Twins -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Orioles at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 6, Orioles 3
Moneyline
PASS.
I’ve got the Twins (-175) taking this game, but I’m not paying all that juice, I’ll look to the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET TWINS -1.5 (+120).
The Orioles are just a win (or a Detroit Tigers loss) away from securing the top AL Wild Card position, but the Twins are in a do-or-die situation—if they lose, they’re done.
This is exactly why Minnesota traded for Lopez. He’s been clutch when it counts, going 4-1 in his last 6 starts and allowing only 2 ER per outing.
Meanwhile, the Orioles’ starter Povich has been a mess on the road. He’s 1-4 in his last 7 starts and has a brutal 10 ERA away from home. He hasn’t won a road game all season (0-5), and with everything on the line for the Twins, they should cover the spread with Lopez on the mound.
Over/Under
PASS.
I do not like this number and don’t have a great feeling either way. The trends are very 50/50 when it comes to the O/U. I’ll just avoid and keep my bet to the moneyline.
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