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The Houston Astros (82-69) and San Diego Padres (86-66) meet Wednesday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Petco Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Houston escaped with a 4-3 win in 10 innings over San Diego Tuesday as a +108 road underdog. After 2B Jose Altuve was ejected in the 9th for taking his shoe off — he was pleading his case that he had fouled a ball off his foot — his replacement Grae Kessinger scored on a 10th-inning, go-ahead RBI single from RF Kyle Tucker.
The loss ended a 4-game win streak for the Padres. San Diego and Houston are essentially playoff locks at this point; their chances of making the postseason are 99.5 and 98.9 percent, respectively, according to FanGraphs.com.
Astros at Padres projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Valdez (14-6, 2.91 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 163 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-3 home win over Oakland A’s Thursday
- Career vs. San Diego: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (10 IP, 5 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 2 starts in 2021
Cease (13-11, 3.58 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 176 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 5-0 victory at San Francisco Giants Friday
- Career vs. Houston (regular season): 0-3, 4.18 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 across 6 starts, including 0-0 with 0.73 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 1 ER) in 2 starts last year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+155) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Astros at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 3, Padres 2
Moneyline
LEAN HOUSTON (-115).
Houston is 4-1 in its last 5 road games and 5-1 in its last 6 overall, while the Padres are only 1-3 in their last 4 at home. The Astros are also 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams.
This is a lean because these are 2 very evenly matched squads and the Padres are 3-2 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
This should be a tight matchup, as both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall and the last 10 meetings have been split 5-5, so I like the Padres to cover here as +1.5 (-190) underdogs. However, this line is set too favorably to risk betting, so bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7 (+100).
The Under has hit in each of San Diego’s last 3 games overall and is 3-2 in its last 5 at home.
Be aware that the Over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings.
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